globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-019-04820-2
WOS记录号: WOS:000475558800057
论文题名:
Circulation analogues and uncertainty in the time-evolution of extreme event probabilities: evidence from the 1947 Central European heatwave
作者: Harrington, Luke J.1; Otto, Friederike E. L.1; Cowan, Tim2,3,4; Hegerl, Gabriele C.2
通讯作者: Harrington, Luke J.
刊名: CLIMATE DYNAMICS
ISSN: 0930-7575
EISSN: 1432-0894
出版年: 2019
卷: 53, 期:3-4, 页码:2229-2247
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Circulation analogues ; Heatwaves ; Extreme weather events ; Signal-to-noise ratios ; Climate change
WOS关键词: ATTRIBUTION STATEMENTS ; DYNAMICAL ADJUSTMENT ; CLIMATE ; TEMPERATURE ; BLOCKING ; WEATHER ; PRECIPITATION ; PROJECTIONS ; MECHANISMS ; RAINFALL
WOS学科分类: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

The science of extreme event attribution has rapidly expanded in recent years, with numerous studies dedicated to determining whether and to what extent anthropogenic climate change has increased the likelihood of specific extreme weather events occurring. However, the majority of such studies have focussed on extreme events which have occurred in the recent past (usually within the past 10 years) while minimal research efforts have considered the multitude of high-impact extreme climatic events which occurred throughout the instrumental record. This study proposes a framework to quantify how the likelihood of witnessing meteorological characteristics reminiscent of the 1947 Central European heatwave have evolved over time. We specifically examine circulation analogues as a tool to understand the relative role of dynamical and thermodynamic contributions to changes in the probability of experiencing similar heatwave events. Using a reanalysis-based dataset, our results show changes in the frequency of 1947-like extreme heat throughout the twentieth century to be highly sensitive to methodological choices, particularly in the context of disaggregating dynamic and thermodynamic changes in the risk of extreme heat. Evidence also suggests clear decadal variability in the occurrence of circulation patterns conducive to the 1947 heatwaves. Finally, we discuss how to appropriately consider the time-evolution of attribution statements, as well as the broader limitations of employing circulation analogues as a method to interrogate the dynamical contribution to the probability ratio of an extreme event.


Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/125423
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: 1.Univ Oxford, Environm Change Inst, S Parks Rd, Oxford OX1 3QY, England
2.Univ Edinburgh, Sch Geosci, James Hutton Rd, Edinburgh EH9 3FE, Midlothian, Scotland
3.Univ Southern Queensland, 700 Collins St, Melbourne, Vic 3008, Australia
4.Bur Meteorol, 700 Collins St, Melbourne, Vic 3008, Australia

Recommended Citation:
Harrington, Luke J.,Otto, Friederike E. L.,Cowan, Tim,et al. Circulation analogues and uncertainty in the time-evolution of extreme event probabilities: evidence from the 1947 Central European heatwave[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019-01-01,53(3-4):2229-2247
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Harrington, Luke J.]'s Articles
[Otto, Friederike E. L.]'s Articles
[Cowan, Tim]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[Harrington, Luke J.]'s Articles
[Otto, Friederike E. L.]'s Articles
[Cowan, Tim]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[Harrington, Luke J.]‘s Articles
[Otto, Friederike E. L.]‘s Articles
[Cowan, Tim]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.