globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-019-04640-4
WOS记录号: WOS:000475558800004
论文题名:
Bias adjustment and ensemble recalibration methods for seasonal forecasting: a comprehensive intercomparison using the C3S dataset
作者: Manzanas, R.1; Gutierrez, J. M.1; Bhend, J.2; Hemri, S.2; Doblas-Reyes, F. J.3,4; Torralba, V.3; Penabad, E.5; Brookshaw, A.5
通讯作者: Manzanas, R.
刊名: CLIMATE DYNAMICS
ISSN: 0930-7575
EISSN: 1432-0894
出版年: 2019
卷: 53, 期:3-4, 页码:1287-1305
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Seasonal forecasting ; C3S ; Bias adjustment ; Ensemble recalibration ; Forecast quality ; Reliability ; Ensemble size ; Hindcast length
WOS关键词: CLIMATE ; PRECIPITATION ; ENSO ; SKILL ; PREDICTABILITY ; PREDICTION ; IMPROVE ; SCORE
WOS学科分类: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

This work presents a comprehensive intercomparison of different alternatives for the calibration of seasonal forecasts, ranging from simple bias adjustment (BA)-e.g. quantile mapping-to more sophisticated ensemble recalibration (RC) methods-e.g. non-homogeneous Gaussian regression, which build on the temporal correspondence between the climate model and the corresponding observations to generate reliable predictions. To be as critical as possible, we validate the raw model and the calibrated forecasts in terms of a number of metrics which take into account different aspects of forecast quality (association, accuracy, discrimination and reliability). We focus on one-month lead forecasts of precipitation and temperature from four state-of-the-art seasonal forecasting systems, three of them included in the Copernicus Climate Change Service dataset (ECMWF-SEAS5, UK Met Office-GloSea5 and Meteo France-System5) for boreal winter and summer over two illustrative regions with different skill characteristics (Europe and Southeast Asia). Our results indicate that both BA and RC methods effectively correct the large raw model biases, which is of paramount importance for users, particularly when directly using the climate model outputs to run impact models, or when computing climate indices depending on absolute values/thresholds. However, except for particular regions and/or seasons (typically with high skill), there is only marginal added value-with respect to the raw model outputs-beyond this bias removal. For those cases, RC methods can outperform BA ones, mostly due to an improvement in reliability. Finally, we also show that whereas an increase in the number of members only modestly affects the results obtained from calibration, longer hindcast periods lead to improved forecast quality, particularly for RC methods.


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被引频次[WOS]:52   [查看WOS记录]     [查看WOS中相关记录]
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/125424
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作者单位: 1.Univ Cantabria, CSIC, Inst Phys Cantabria IFCA, Meteorol Grp, E-39005 Santander, Spain
2.Fed Off Meteorol & Climatol MeteoSwiss, Zurich, Switzerland
3.BSC, Barcelona, Spain
4.ICREA, Pg Lluis Co 23, Barcelona 08010, Spain
5.European Ctr Medium Range Weather Forecasts ECMWF, Reading, Berks, England

Recommended Citation:
Manzanas, R.,Gutierrez, J. M.,Bhend, J.,et al. Bias adjustment and ensemble recalibration methods for seasonal forecasting: a comprehensive intercomparison using the C3S dataset[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019-01-01,53(3-4):1287-1305
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