globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-018-4340-y
WOS记录号: WOS:000463842700054
论文题名:
Future projections of temperature changes in Ottawa, Canada through stepwise clustered downscaling of multiple GCMs under RCPs
作者: Zhai, Yuanyuan1; Huang, Gordon1; Wang, Xiuquan2; Zhou, Xiong1; Lu, Chen1; Li, Zoe3
通讯作者: Huang, Gordon
刊名: CLIMATE DYNAMICS
ISSN: 0930-7575
EISSN: 1432-0894
出版年: 2019
卷: 52, 期:5-6, 页码:3455-3470
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Stepwise clustered downscaling ; Temperature ; Ottawa ; Multiple GCMs ; Climate change ; Impact studies
WOS关键词: CLIMATE-CHANGE IMPACTS ; MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLE ; AIR-QUALITY ; ONTARIO ; PRECIPITATION ; UNCERTAINTY ; RAINFALL ; EVENTS ; MODELS ; SYSTEM
WOS学科分类: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

As the capital city of Canada, Ottawa has been experiencing significant impacts of global climate change. How to adapt to future climate change is one of the biggest concerns in the city's built and natural systems. It thusrequires a comprehensive understanding of possible changes in the local climate of Ottawa, which can hardly be reflected in the coarse outputs of Global Climate Models (GCMs). Therefore, a stepwise clustered downscaling (SCD) model is employed in this study to help investigate the plausible changes in daily maximum, minimum, and mean temperatures in Ottawa. Outputs from multiple GCMs under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are used as inputs to drive the SCD model in order to develop downscaled climate projections. The performance of SCD model is evaluated by comparing the model simulations to the observations (R-2>0.87) over the historical periods. Future temperature projections and their likely temporal trends throughout this century are analyzed in detail to explorethe regional variations of global warming in Ottawa, thus to provide scientific basis for developing appropriate adaptation strategies at different management levels. The results suggest that the City of Ottawa is likely to expect significant increasing trends in temperatures (i.e.,0.18-0.38 degrees C per decade in maximum temperature, 0.16-0.31 degrees C per decade in minimum temperature, and 0.17-0.34 degrees C per decade in mean temperature under RCP4.5; 0.46-0.54 degrees C per decade in maximum temperature, 0.37-0.45 degrees C per decade in minimum temperature, and 0.42-0.50 degrees C per decade in mean temperature under RCP8.5) throughout this century.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/125466
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: 1.Univ Regina, Inst Energy Environm & Sustainable Communities, Regina, SK S4S 0A2, Canada
2.Univ Prince Edward Isl, Sch Climate Change & Adaptat, Charlottetown, PE C1A 4P3, Canada
3.McMaster Univ, Dept Civil Engn, Hamilton, ON L8S 4L8, Canada

Recommended Citation:
Zhai, Yuanyuan,Huang, Gordon,Wang, Xiuquan,et al. Future projections of temperature changes in Ottawa, Canada through stepwise clustered downscaling of multiple GCMs under RCPs[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019-01-01,52(5-6):3455-3470
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