WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC
; CLUSTER-ANALYSIS
; CLIMATE SYSTEM
; ATLANTIC
WOS学科分类:
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向:
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:
A recently validated algorithm for detecting and tracking tropical cyclones (TCs) in coarse resolution climate models was applied to a selected group of 12 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to assess potential changes in TC track characteristics in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) due to greenhouse warming. Current-climate simulations over the period 1970-2000 are first evaluated against observations using measures of TC genesis location and frequency, as well as track trajectory and lifetime in seven objectively defined genesis regions. The 12-model (12-M) ensemble showed substantial skill in reproducing a realistic TC climatology over the evaluation period. To address potential biases associated with model interdependency, analyses were repeated with an ensemble of five independent models (5-M). Results from both the 12-M and 5-M ensembles were very similar, instilling confidence in the models for climate projections if the current TC-climate relationship is to remain stationary. Projected changes in TC track density between the current- and future-climate (2070-2100) simulations under the Representatives Concentration 8.5 Pathways (RCP8.5) are also assessed. Overall, projection results showed a substantial decrease (1-3 per decade) in track density over most parts of the SH by the end of the twenty-first century. This decrease is attributed to a significant reduction in TC numbers (15-42%) consistent with changes in large-scale environmental parameters such as relative vorticity, environmental vertical wind shear and relative humidity. This study may assist with adaption pathways and implications for regional-scale climate change for vulnerable regions in the SH.
1.Federat Univ Australia, Ctr Informat & Appl Optimizat, Ballarat, Vic 3357, Australia 2.Bur Meteorol, Res & Dev Branch, Melbourne, Vic 3001, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Bell, Samuel S.,Chand, Savin S.,Tory, Kevin J.,et al. Projections of southern hemisphere tropical cyclone track density using CMIP5 models[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019-01-01,52(9-10):6065-6079