globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-018-4497-4
WOS记录号: WOS:000465441400056
论文题名:
Projections of southern hemisphere tropical cyclone track density using CMIP5 models
作者: Bell, Samuel S.1; Chand, Savin S.1; Tory, Kevin J.2; Dowdy, Andrew J.2; Turville, Chris1; Ye, Harvey2
通讯作者: Bell, Samuel S.
刊名: CLIMATE DYNAMICS
ISSN: 0930-7575
EISSN: 1432-0894
出版年: 2019
卷: 52, 期:9-10, 页码:6065-6079
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Tropical cyclone ; Track ; Southern hemisphere ; Model projection ; Climate change
WOS关键词: WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC ; CLUSTER-ANALYSIS ; CLIMATE SYSTEM ; ATLANTIC
WOS学科分类: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

A recently validated algorithm for detecting and tracking tropical cyclones (TCs) in coarse resolution climate models was applied to a selected group of 12 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to assess potential changes in TC track characteristics in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) due to greenhouse warming. Current-climate simulations over the period 1970-2000 are first evaluated against observations using measures of TC genesis location and frequency, as well as track trajectory and lifetime in seven objectively defined genesis regions. The 12-model (12-M) ensemble showed substantial skill in reproducing a realistic TC climatology over the evaluation period. To address potential biases associated with model interdependency, analyses were repeated with an ensemble of five independent models (5-M). Results from both the 12-M and 5-M ensembles were very similar, instilling confidence in the models for climate projections if the current TC-climate relationship is to remain stationary. Projected changes in TC track density between the current- and future-climate (2070-2100) simulations under the Representatives Concentration 8.5 Pathways (RCP8.5) are also assessed. Overall, projection results showed a substantial decrease (1-3 per decade) in track density over most parts of the SH by the end of the twenty-first century. This decrease is attributed to a significant reduction in TC numbers (15-42%) consistent with changes in large-scale environmental parameters such as relative vorticity, environmental vertical wind shear and relative humidity. This study may assist with adaption pathways and implications for regional-scale climate change for vulnerable regions in the SH.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/125550
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: 1.Federat Univ Australia, Ctr Informat & Appl Optimizat, Ballarat, Vic 3357, Australia
2.Bur Meteorol, Res & Dev Branch, Melbourne, Vic 3001, Australia

Recommended Citation:
Bell, Samuel S.,Chand, Savin S.,Tory, Kevin J.,et al. Projections of southern hemisphere tropical cyclone track density using CMIP5 models[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019-01-01,52(9-10):6065-6079
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