globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-018-2338-4
WOS记录号: WOS:000457271900012
论文题名:
Climate change impacts on the distribution of venomous snakes and snakebite risk in Mozambique
作者: Zacarias, Daniel1,2,3,4; Loyola, Rafael3,5
通讯作者: Zacarias, Daniel
刊名: CLIMATIC CHANGE
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2019
卷: 152, 期:1, 页码:195-207
语种: 英语
WOS关键词: SPECIES DISTRIBUTION ; THRESHOLD SELECTION ; BITES ; AFRICA ; AREA ; IDENTIFICATION ; EPIDEMIOLOGY ; STRATEGIES ; RESOLUTION ; CONFLICT
WOS学科分类: Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

This paper aims to understand the impacts of global climate change (GCC) on the distribution of dangerous venomous snakes and snakebite risk in Mozambique, as a contribution to the enhancement of public health policies and snake conservation. We modelled current and future distribution of all 13 dangerous snakes occurring in Mozambique using ecological niche models to assess the likely impacts of climate change estimated as the difference between lost and gained climatic suitable area per species. In addition, we developed a normalized index of snakebite risk based on species diversity and species-specific traits for each time slice. We then superimposed our index to data on human population density to identify areas most prone to this burden. Our findings suggest considerable future reduction in climatically suitable area for nine out of 13 species, with species experiencing a north-south range shift and high rates of species turnover in northern Mozambique. We also found that GCC might alter the spatial patterns of snakebite risk in the country, with considerable increase in the future, affecting most areas in central and southern regions. This finding suggests that GCC will be harmful to venomous snakes in Mozambique with potentially adverse effects on public health. As GCC might induce the approximation of snake climatic suitable areas to highly populated areas, efforts are needed to increase human knowledge of snakebite prevention measures and increase awareness of the relative safety and attacking behaviour associated with some of the snakes studied here ensuring reduction in snakebites and improving species conservation.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/125790
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: 1.Univ Fed Goias, Programa Posgrad Ecol & Evolucao, CP 131, BR-74001970 Goiania, Go, Brazil
2.Inst Gulbenkian Ciencias, Programa Posgrad Ciencia Desenvolvimento, Apartado 14, P-2781901 Oeiras, Portugal
3.Univ Fed Goias, Lab Biogeog Conservacao, Dept Ecol, CP 131, BR-74001970 Goiania, Go, Brazil
4.Univ Eduardo Mondlane, Escola Super Hotelaria & Turismo Inhambane, Caixa Postal 75, Inhambane, Mozambique
5.Brazilian Res Network Global Climate Change Rede, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Recommended Citation:
Zacarias, Daniel,Loyola, Rafael. Climate change impacts on the distribution of venomous snakes and snakebite risk in Mozambique[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2019-01-01,152(1):195-207
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