We applied an empirical model to predict hatching and emergence timing for 25 western Alaska sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) populations in four lake-nursery systems to explore current patterns and potential responses of early life history phenology to warming water temperatures. Given the temperature regimes sockeye salmon experienced during development, we predicted hatching to occur in as few as 58 days to as many as 260 days depending on spawning timing and temperature. For a focal lake spawning population, our climate-lake temperature model predicted a water temperature increase of 0.7 to 1.4 degrees C from 2015 to 2099 during the incubation period, which translated to a hatching timing that was 16 to 30 days earlier. The most extreme warming scenarios shifted development to approximately 1 week earlier than historical minima and thus climatic warming may lead to only modest shifts in phenology during the early life history stage of this population. The marked variation in the predicted timing of hatching and emergence among populations in close proximity on the landscape may serve to buffer this metapopulation from climate change.
1.Univ Alaska Fairbanks, Coll Fisheries & Ocean Sci, Fairbanks, AK 99775 USA 2.Univ Alaska Fairbanks, US Geol Survey, Alaska Cooperat Fish & Wildlife Res Unit, Fairbanks, AK 99775 USA 3.Univ Washington, Sch Aquat & Fishery Sci, Seattle, WA 98195 USA 4.Univ Alaska Fairbanks, Coll Fisheries & Ocean Sci, 17101 Point Lena Loop Rd, Juneau, AK 99801 USA 5.Southwest Alaska Network, 240 West 5th Ave, Anchorage, AK 99501 USA 6.Natl Pk Serv, Lake Clark Natl Pk & Preserve, Anchorage, AK 99501 USA 7.Purdue Univ, Dept Biol Sci, Lily G-365,915 West State St, W Lafayette, IN 47907 USA
Recommended Citation:
Sparks, Morgan M.,Falke, Jeffrey A.,Quinn, Thomas P.,et al. Influences of spawning timing, water temperature, and climatic warming on early life history phenology in western Alaska sockeye salmon[J]. CANADIAN JOURNAL OF FISHERIES AND AQUATIC SCIENCES,2019-01-01,76(1):123-135