globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.13031/trans.13044
WOS记录号: WOS:000472716900006
论文题名:
SENSITIVITY OF PREDICTED AGRO-ECOSYSTEM VARIABLES TO ERRORS IN WEATHER INPUT DATA
作者: Zhang, Y.; Paustian, K.
通讯作者: Zhang, Y.
刊名: TRANSACTIONS OF THE ASABE
ISSN: 2151-0032
EISSN: 2151-0040
出版年: 2019
卷: 62, 期:3, 页码:627-640
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Agro-ecosystem model ; DayCent model ; Prediction bias ; Weather data
WOS关键词: DAILY SOLAR-RADIATION ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; MODEL ; DAYCENT ; SIMULATION ; EMISSIONS ; IMPACT ; YIELDS ; MAIZE ; N2O
WOS学科分类: Agricultural Engineering
WOS研究方向: Agriculture
英文摘要:

Statistically interpolated weather station data, outputs from climate reanalyses, and results from downscaled general circulation model (GCM) simulations are widely used to drive a variety of agro-ecosystem model applications, including regional-and national-scale crop modeling. In this study, we compared these three types of gridded weather datasets (total of nine datasets) with actual point-level weather station observations and analyzed the biases in predicted ecosystem variables of evapotranspiration (ET), crop grain yield, soil organic carbon (SOC) change, and soil N2O emissions using the process-based DayCent ecosystem model. As a reference system, we defined continuous corn cropping systems for three different regions in the U.S. Our results suggested that the predicted ecosystem variables can be highly sensitive to the sources of weather input data. Interpolated weather data from the PRISM and Daymet data products provided relatively accurate estimations of important ecosystem variables. Compared with the bias-corrected constructed analogs (BCCA) method, GCM results downscaled with the multivariate adaptive constructed analogs (MACA) method performed better for agro-ecosystem simulations under climate change; for datasets using BCCA, the rainfall frequency was positively biased and likely caused models to significantly underestimate solar radiation. For regional climate change studies that use a baseline simulation (historical period) for comparison, we suggest including the uncertainty of the baseline due to biases in the weather data in addition to the uncertainty in the projected weather data.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/126450
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: Colorado State Univ, Nat Resource Ecol Lab, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA

Recommended Citation:
Zhang, Y.,Paustian, K.. SENSITIVITY OF PREDICTED AGRO-ECOSYSTEM VARIABLES TO ERRORS IN WEATHER INPUT DATA[J]. TRANSACTIONS OF THE ASABE,2019-01-01,62(3):627-640
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