globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.3390/w11010170
WOS记录号: WOS:000459735100168
论文题名:
Using a Hydrologic Model to Assess the Performance of Regional Climate Models in a Semi-Arid Watershed in Brazil
作者: Santos, Carlos A. S.1,2; Rocha, Felizardo. A.1; Ramos, Tiago B.2; Alves, Lincoln M.3; Mateus, Marcos2; de Oliveira, Rodrigo Proenca4; Neves, Ramiro2
通讯作者: Santos, Carlos A. S.
刊名: WATER
ISSN: 2073-4441
出版年: 2019
卷: 11, 期:1
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change ; Paraguacu River Basin ; semi-arid region ; SWAT model ; Eta-HadGEM2-ES ; Eta-MIROC5 ; correction bias
WOS关键词: METEOROLOGICAL VARIABLES ; BIAS CORRECTION ; RIVER-BASIN ; SIMULATION ; IMPACTS ; AREA ; SWAT
WOS学科分类: Water Resources
WOS研究方向: Water Resources
英文摘要:

This study assessed the impact of climate change on the hydrological regime of the Paraguacu river basin, northeastern Brazil. Hydrological impact simulations were conducted using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for 2020-2040. Precipitation and surface air temperature projections from two Regional Climate Models (Eta-HadGEM2-ES and Eta-MIROC5) based on IPCC5RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios were used as inputs after first applying two bias correction methods (linear scalingLS and distribution mappingDM). The analysis of the impact of climate change on streamflow was done by comparing the maximum, average and reference (Q90) flows of the simulated and observed streamflow records. This study found that both methods were able to correct the climate projection bias, but the DM method showed larger distortion when applied to future scenarios. Climate projections from the Eta-HadGEM2-ES (LS) model showed significant reductions of mean monthly streamflow for all time periods under both RCP 4.5 and 8.5. The Eta-MIROC5 (LS) model showed a lower reduction of the simulated mean monthly streamflow under RCP 4.5 and a decrease of streamflow under RCP 8.5, similar to the Eta-HadGEM2-ES model results. The results of this study provide information for guiding future water resource management in the Paraguacu River Basin and show that the bias correction algorithm also plays a significant role when assessing climate model estimates and their applicability to hydrological modelling.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/126766
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: 1.Inst Fed Bahia, Ave Amazonas 351, BR-45030220 Vitoria Da Conquista, BA, Brazil
2.Univ Lisbon, Ctr Ciencia & Tecnol Ambiente & Mar MARETEC, Inst Super Tecn, Ave Rovisco Pais 1, P-1049001 Lisbon, Portugal
3.Inst Pesquisas Espaciais CPTEC INPE, Ctr Previsao Tempo & Estudos Climat, Sao Paulo, Brazil
4.Univ Lisbon, CERIS, Inst Super Tecn, Ave Rovisco Pais 1, P-1049001 Lisbon, Portugal

Recommended Citation:
Santos, Carlos A. S.,Rocha, Felizardo. A.,Ramos, Tiago B.,et al. Using a Hydrologic Model to Assess the Performance of Regional Climate Models in a Semi-Arid Watershed in Brazil[J]. WATER,2019-01-01,11(1)
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