globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.7546/CRABS.2019.01.06
WOS记录号: WOS:000460199100006
论文题名:
THEIL-SEN ESTIMATOR VS. ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES - TREND ANALYSIS FOR SELECTED ETCCDI CLIMATE INDICES
作者: Chervenkov, Hristo; Slavov, Kiril
通讯作者: Chervenkov, Hristo
刊名: COMPTES RENDUS DE L ACADEMIE BULGARE DES SCIENCES
ISSN: 1310-1331
出版年: 2019
卷: 72, 期:1, 页码:47-54
语种: 英语
英文关键词: trend analysis ; ordinary least squares ; Theil-Sen estimator ; ETCCDI climate indices ; ClimData
WOS关键词: EXTREMES
WOS学科分类: Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS研究方向: Science & Technology - Other Topics
英文摘要:

The oncoming climate changes will cause impact on the ecosystems, on all branches of the international economy, on the human health and quality of life. The importance of assessing trends in climate extremes is often emphasized. As far as this trend could be quantified by means of various statistical techniques, the final outcome can differ from method to method. Main aim of the present study is to demonstrate the impact of the choice, which more of less is a matter of arbitrariness, for estimation of the slope of the linear trend. The two most widely applied regression methods in the climatology are considered: the ordinary least squares and the Theil-Sen estimator. Objects of the linear trend analysis are 67-years long series of selected ETCCDI climate indices on annual basis, part of the database ClimData. The main conclusion is that both regression methods produce different, in the common case nonnegligible results concerning the slope of the line, e.g. trend estimation. This fact is strengthened by presence of even few "strange" data points in the analyzed time series.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/126772
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: Bulgarian Acad Sci, Natl Inst Meteorol & Hydrol, 66 Tsarigradsko Shosse Blvd, BU-1784 Sofia, Bulgaria

Recommended Citation:
Chervenkov, Hristo,Slavov, Kiril. THEIL-SEN ESTIMATOR VS. ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES - TREND ANALYSIS FOR SELECTED ETCCDI CLIMATE INDICES[J]. COMPTES RENDUS DE L ACADEMIE BULGARE DES SCIENCES,2019-01-01,72(1):47-54
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