globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.3390/su11010206
WOS记录号: WOS:000457127300206
论文题名:
An Integrated Modelling Approach to Study Future Water Demand Vulnerability in the Montargil Reservoir Basin, Portugal
作者: Almeida, Carina1,2; Ramos, Tiago B.1; Sobrinho, Joao1; Neves, Ramiro1; de Oliveira, Rodrigo Proenca3
通讯作者: Almeida, Carina
刊名: SUSTAINABILITY
ISSN: 2071-1050
出版年: 2019
卷: 11, 期:1
语种: 英语
英文关键词: integrating modelling ; climate change ; water availability ; vulnerability ; Montargil ; basin ; reservoir
WOS关键词: CLIMATE-CHANGE PROJECTIONS ; MULTIPLE STRESSORS ; RELIABILITY ; RESOURCES ; SYSTEM ; PERFORMANCE ; MANAGEMENT ; IMPACT ; VARIABILITY ; RESILIENCE
WOS学科分类: Green & Sustainable Science & Technology ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies
WOS研究方向: Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
英文摘要:

This paper describes an integrated modelling approach to study water use vulnerability in a typical Mediterranean basin under different climate change projections. The soil water assessment tool (SWAT) and the MOHID (from modelo hidrodinamico) Water model were used to evaluate the impacts of two climate scenarios (GFDL-ESM2M and IPSL-CM5A-LR) on water availability in Montargil's basin and reservoir (Portugal) during two decadal timelines (2030 and 2060). Reservoir performance metrics were estimated considering also two water demand scenarios: an average of the water demand in the last 10 years; and the largest annual demand of the last 10 years. The SWAT model results showed a future decrease of inflows to the reservoir, with its volumetric reliability decreasing from 100% in the historical simulation to about 60-70% in the IPSL-CM5A-LR climate scenario and 40-50% in the GFDL-ESM2M climate scenario. The time reliability also decreased to less than 30%, while the resiliency for the water demand decreased to an average 20-35% for both climate scenarios. These impacts indicate the importance of the managing systems in an integrative mode to prevent water resources reduction in the region.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/126960
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: 1.Univ Lisbon, Inst Super Tecn, Ctr Ciencia & Tecnol Ambiente & Mar MARETEC, Av Rovisco Pais 1, P-1049001 Lisbon, Portugal
2.AQUALOGUS, Rua Mar China 1 Escritorio 2-4,Parque Nacoes, P-1990137 Lisbon, Portugal
3.Inst Super Tecn, CERIS, Av Rovisco Pais 1, P-1049001 Lisbon, Portugal

Recommended Citation:
Almeida, Carina,Ramos, Tiago B.,Sobrinho, Joao,et al. An Integrated Modelling Approach to Study Future Water Demand Vulnerability in the Montargil Reservoir Basin, Portugal[J]. SUSTAINABILITY,2019-01-01,11(1)
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