globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s11269-018-2169-0
WOS记录号: WOS:000458693900013
论文题名:
A Recursive Approach to Long-Term Prediction of Monthly Precipitation Using Genetic Programming
作者: Liu, Suning1,2,3; Shi, Haiyun1,2,4
通讯作者: Shi, Haiyun
刊名: WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT
ISSN: 0920-4741
EISSN: 1573-1650
出版年: 2019
卷: 33, 期:3, 页码:1103-1121
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Monthly precipitation ; Recursive approach ; Long-term prediction ; Genetic programming ; Three-River Headwaters Region
WOS关键词: 3-RIVER HEADWATERS REGION ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; TRENDS ; WATER ; IDENTIFICATION ; SYSTEM
WOS学科分类: Engineering, Civil ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向: Engineering ; Water Resources
英文摘要:

Precipitation is regarded as the basic component of the global hydrological cycle. This study develops a recursive approach to long-term prediction of monthly precipitation using genetic programming (GP), taking the Three-River Headwaters Region (TRHR) in China as the study area. The daily precipitation data recorded at 29 meteorological stations during 1961-2014 are collected, among which the data during 1961-2000 are for calibration and the remaining data are for validation. To develop this approach, first, the preliminary estimations of annual precipitation are computed based on a statistical method. Second, the percentage of the monthly precipitation for each month of a year is calculated as the mean monthly precipitation divided by the mean annual precipitation during the study period, and then the preliminary estimation of monthly precipitation for each month of a year is obtained. Third, since GP can be used to improve the prediction results through establishing the relationship of the observations with the preliminary estimations at the past and current times, it is adopted to improve the preliminary estimations. The calibration and validation results reveal that the recursive approach involving GP can provide the more accurate predictions of monthly precipitation. Finally, this approach is used to predict the monthly precipitation over the TRHR till 2050. Overall, the proposed method and the obtained results will enhance our understanding and facilitate future studies regarding the long-term prediction of precipitation in such regions.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/128406
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: 1.Southern Univ Sci & Technol, State Environm Protect Key Lab Integrated Surface, Sch Environm Sci & Engn, Shenzhen, Peoples R China
2.Southern Univ Sci & Technol, Guangdong Prov Key Lab Soil & Groundwater Pollut, Sch Environm Sci & Engn, Shenzhen, Peoples R China
3.Univ Hong Kong, Dept Civil Engn, Hong Kong, Peoples R China
4.Qinghai Univ, State Key Lab Plateau Ecol & Agr, Xining, Qinghai, Peoples R China

Recommended Citation:
Liu, Suning,Shi, Haiyun. A Recursive Approach to Long-Term Prediction of Monthly Precipitation Using Genetic Programming[J]. WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT,2019-01-01,33(3):1103-1121
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