globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1002/joc.5861
WOS记录号: WOS:000459665000030
论文题名:
Projected changes in drought across the wheat belt of southeastern Australia using a downscaled climate ensemble
作者: Feng, Puyu1,2; Liu, De Li2,3,4; Wang, Bin2; Waters, Cathy5; Zhang, Mingxi2,6; Yu, Qiang1,6,7
通讯作者: Feng, Puyu
刊名: INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN: 0899-8418
EISSN: 1097-0088
出版年: 2019
卷: 39, 期:2, 页码:1041-1053
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change ; drought ; rSPEI ; southeastern Australia ; spatio-temporal variations
WOS关键词: MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLE ; CROP PRODUCTION ; CHANGE IMPACT ; PRECIPITATION ; SEVERITY ; TRENDS ; VULNERABILITY ; TEMPERATURE ; VARIABILITY ; DURATION
WOS学科分类: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

Drought is viewed as a naturally recurring phenomenon in many Australian agricultural systems. Identifying regional changes in frequency and severity of drought induced by climate change is required to develop regionally specific adaptation strategies. In this study, we provided a first look at the impacts of climate change on 21st century drought characteristics over the New South Wales wheat belt of southeastern Australia. These impacts were assessed from an ensemble of 28 statistical downscaled global climate models under representative concentration pathway (RCP8.5). A modified relative standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index (rSPEI) at the seasonal scale (3 months) was used to analyse temporal and spatial changes in drought. Results indicated that there was a tendency towards more frequent and severe winter-spring droughts over the study area. Moreover, winter-spring drought prone areas were expected to expand from west to east. Until the end of the 21st century, more than half the wheat belt would be vulnerable to winter-spring drought. The combined effects of reduced precipitation and increased temperature during future winter and spring seasons were the main reasons causing these changes of drought. In addition, summer and autumn droughts would have both slight temporal and spatial changes across the study region. This study also revealed that traditionally dry areas would likely experience an increased frequency of drought compared to wetter areas when subjected to a same increase in temperature or decrease in precipitation. Furthermore, the western part of the wheat belt might be unsuitable for winter crops in the future, or at least exposed to an increased risk of variable yield and would require a gradual transformation which might include summer crops or pastures. Investments in cropping land should be focused on the east part of the wheat belt to achieve more consistent financial returns.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/128466
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: 1.Univ Technol Sydney, Sch Life Sci, Fac Sci, POB 123, Sydney, NSW 2007, Australia
2.Wagga Wagga Agr Inst, NSW Dept Primary Ind, Wagga Wagga, NSW, Australia
3.Univ New South Wales, Climate Change Res Ctr, Sydney, NSW, Australia
4.Univ New South Wales, ARC Ctr Excellence Climate Extremes, Sydney, NSW, Australia
5.Orange Agr Inst, NSW Dept Primary Ind, Orange, NSW, Australia
6.Northwest A&F Univ, State Key Lab Soil Eros & Dryland Farming Loess P, Yangling, Shaanxi, Peoples R China
7.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing, Peoples R China

Recommended Citation:
Feng, Puyu,Liu, De Li,Wang, Bin,et al. Projected changes in drought across the wheat belt of southeastern Australia using a downscaled climate ensemble[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2019-01-01,39(2):1041-1053
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