globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1002/joc.5843
WOS记录号: WOS:000459665000015
论文题名:
Modelling the impacts of the Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies on a drought event in southwestern China with a piecewise-integration method
作者: Gan, Ruhui; Yang, Yi; Ma, Yuanyuan
通讯作者: Yang, Yi
刊名: INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN: 0899-8418
EISSN: 1097-0088
出版年: 2019
卷: 39, 期:2, 页码:799-813
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change attribution ; CP El Nino ; drought over southwestern China ; piecewise-integration method ; sea surface temperature anomalies
WOS关键词: SPECTRAL NUDGING TECHNIQUE ; LIMITED-AREA MODEL ; EL-NINO MODOKI ; REGIONAL CLIMATE ; LAND-USE ; SIMULATION ; SENSITIVITY ; MONSOON ; PRECIPITATION ; HYDROLOGY
WOS学科分类: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

Model-based sensitivity experiments are a widely used method for studying climate change attributions. In traditional climate sensitivity studies, climate drift occurs because of the accumulation of model errors during long-term integrations, both in actual and hypothetical states. A more accurate piecewise-integration method is used to reduce the model errors, dividing the continuous simulation into a series of sequential short-term simulations. The model fields are updated at the end of each subinterval with analysis data for the actual state run, and with the sum of the analysis data and the difference between hypothetical and actual states for the hypothetical state run. This paper conducts sensitivity experiments with the continuous-integration method and the piecewise-integration method to evaluate the impacts of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) on the severe drought that occurred in southwestern China (SWC) in the winter of 2009/2010. The results show the following. (a) Model errors produced by the piecewise-integration method for the actual state simulation are significantly less than those produced by the continuous-integration method. (b) The intensity of the drought is significantly overestimated in continuous-integration experiments. However, the drought can be accurately simulated in its spatial distribution and intensity via the piecewise-integration method. Thus, climate sensitivity to changes in external forcing can be studied with greater credibility. (c) The warm central Pacific Ocean SSTAs may be the main cause of the drought over SWC. Adequate precipitation occurred over SWC when the centre of the SSTAs shifted to the east. (d) Warm SSTAs over the central Pacific Ocean influenced precipitation over SWC by weakening the water vapour transport branch from South China Sea to SWC. With a deficit of water vapour, the pronounced subsidence and warm temperatures were the main dynamic and thermodynamic factors that caused and maintained the drought.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/128583
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: Lanzhou Univ, Coll Atmospher Sci, Minist Educ, Key Lab Semiarid Climate Change, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, Peoples R China

Recommended Citation:
Gan, Ruhui,Yang, Yi,Ma, Yuanyuan. Modelling the impacts of the Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies on a drought event in southwestern China with a piecewise-integration method[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2019-01-01,39(2):799-813
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