globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.3390/w11020293
WOS记录号: WOS:000460899600112
论文题名:
Real-Time Urban Inundation Prediction Combining Hydraulic and Probabilistic Methods
作者: Kim, Hyun Il1; Keum, Ho Jun2; Han, Kun Yeun1
通讯作者: Keum, Ho Jun
刊名: WATER
ISSN: 2073-4441
出版年: 2019
卷: 11, 期:2
语种: 英语
英文关键词: real-time flood prediction ; drainage system ; urban inundation model ; artificial neural network (ANN)
WOS关键词: NEURAL-NETWORKS ; FLOOD ; MODEL ; SOM
WOS学科分类: Water Resources
WOS研究方向: Water Resources
英文摘要:

Damage caused by flash floods is increasing due to urbanization and climate change, thus it is important to recognize floods in advance. The current physical hydraulic runoff model has been used to predict inundation in urban areas. Even though the physical calculation process is astute and elaborate, it has several shortcomings in regard to real-time flood prediction. The physical model requires various data, such as rainfall, hydrological parameters, and one-/two-dimensional (1D/2D) urban flood simulations. In addition, it is difficult to secure lead time because of the considerable simulation time required. This study presents an immediate solution to these problems by combining hydraulic and probabilistic methods. The accumulative overflows from manholes and an inundation map were predicted within the study area. That is, the method for predicting manhole overflows and an inundation map from rainfall in an urban area is proposed based on results from hydraulic simulations and uncertainty analysis. The Second Verification Algorithm of Nonlinear Auto-Regressive with eXogenous inputs (SVNARX) model is used to learn the relationship between rainfall and overflow, which is calculated from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). In addition, a Self-Organizing Feature Map (SOFM) is used to suggest the proper inundation area by clustering inundation maps from a 2D flood simulation model based on manhole overflow from SWMM. The results from two artificial neural networks (SVNARX and SOFM) were estimated in parallel and interpolated to provide prediction in a short period of time. Real-time flood prediction with the hydraulic and probabilistic models suggested in this study improves the accuracy of the predicted flood inundation map and secures lead time. Through the presented method, the goodness of fit of the inundation area reached 80.4% compared with the verified 2D inundation model.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/128879
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: 1.Kyungpook Natl Univ, Dept Civil Engn, 80 Daehak Ro, Daegu 41566, South Korea
2.Kyungpook Natl Univ, Disaster Prevent Res Inst, 80 Daehak Ro, Daegu 41566, South Korea

Recommended Citation:
Kim, Hyun Il,Keum, Ho Jun,Han, Kun Yeun. Real-Time Urban Inundation Prediction Combining Hydraulic and Probabilistic Methods[J]. WATER,2019-01-01,11(2)
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