Near-term climate predictions - which operate on annual to decadal timescales - offer benefits for climate adaptation and resilience, and are thus important for society. Although skilful near-term predictions are now possible, particularly when coupled models are initialized from the current climate state (most importantly from the ocean), several scientific challenges remain, including gaps in understanding and modelling the underlying physical mechanisms. This Perspective discusses how these challenges can be overcome, outlining concrete steps towards the provision of operational near-term climate predictions. Progress in this endeavour will bridge the gap between current seasonal forecasts and century-scale climate change projections, allowing a seamless climate service delivery chain to be established.
1.Columbia Univ, Lamont Doherty Earth Observ, Palisades, NY 10964 USA 2.Met Off Hadley Ctr Climate Predict & Res, Exeter, Devon, England 3.Univ Exeter, Coll Engn Math & Phys Sci, Exeter, Devon, England 4.Iowa State Univ, Dept Agron, Ames, IA USA 5.European Ctr Medium Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, Berks, England 6.Environm Canada & Climate Change, Canadian Ctr Climate Modelling & Anal, Victoria, BC, Canada 7.ICREA, Barcelona, Spain 8.Barcelona Supercomp Ctr, Barcelona, Spain 9.Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Natl Ctr Atmospher Sci, Reading, Berks, England 10.Univ Tokyo, Atmosphere & Ocean Res Inst, Kashiwa, Chiba, Japan 11.World Meteorol Org, World Climate Applicat & Serv Div, Climate Predict & Adaptat Branch, Climate & Water Dept, Geneva, Switzerland 12.Climate Predict Ctr, College Pk, MD USA 13.Max Planck Inst Meteorol, Hamburg, Germany 14.GEOMAR Helmholtz Ctr Ocean Res Kiel, Kiel, Germany 15.Christian Albrechts Univ Kiel, Kiel, Germany 16.Deutsch Wetterdienst, Hamburg, Germany 17.CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Hobart, Tas, Australia 18.Univ Colorado, Cooperat Inst Res Environm Sci, Boulder, CO USA 19.NOAA, Phys Sci Div, Earth Syst Res Lab, Boulder, CO USA 20.Bur Meteorol, Melbourne, Vic, Australia 21.Univ Calif Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA USA 22.Japan Meteorol Agcy, Tokyo, Japan 23.WCRP WMO, Geneva, Switzerland 24.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, LASG, Beijing, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation:
Kushnir, Yochanan,Scaife, Adam A.,Arritt, Raymond,et al. Towards operational predictions of the near-term climate[J]. NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,2019-01-01,9(2):94-101