Earth system models are complex and represent a large number of processes, resulting in a persistent spread across climate projections for a given future scenario. Owing to different model performances against observations and the lack of independence among models, there is now evidence that giving equal weight to each available model projection is suboptimal. This Perspective discusses newly developed tools that facilitate a more rapid and comprehensive evaluation of model simulations with observations, process-based emergent constraints that are a promising way to focus evaluation on the observations most relevant to climate projections, and advanced methods for model weighting. These approaches are needed to distil the most credible information on regional climate changes, impacts, and risks for stakeholders and policy-makers.
1.Deutsch Zentrum Luft & Raumfahrt eV DLR, Inst Phys Atmosphare, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany 2.Univ Bremen, Inst Environm Phys IUP, Bremen, Germany 3.Univ Exeter, Coll Engn Math & Phys Sci, Exeter, Devon, England 4.Environm & Climate Change Canada, Canadian Ctr Climate Modelling & Anal, Victoria, BC, Canada 5.Lawrence Livermore Natl Lab, PCMDI, Livermore, CA USA 6.Univ New South Wales, Climate Change Res Ctr, Sydney, NSW, Australia 7.Univ New South Wales, ARC Ctr Excellence Climate Extremes, Sydney, NSW, Australia 8.Lawrence Berkeley Natl Lab, Climate & Ecosyst Sci Div, Berkeley, CA USA 9.Univ Calif Berkeley, Dept Earth & Planetary Sci, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA 10.Univ Calif Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA USA 11.Oak Ridge Natl Lab, Computat Earth Sci Grp, Oak Ridge, TN USA 12.Oak Ridge Natl Lab, Climate Change Sci Inst, Oak Ridge, TN USA 13.Univ Tennessee, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Knoxville, TN USA 14.Univ Maryland, Dept Geog Sci, College Pk, MD 20742 USA 15.Univ Colorado, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Boulder, CO 80309 USA 16.Univ Colorado, Inst Arctic & Alpine Res, Boulder, CO 80309 USA 17.Met Off Hadley Ctr, Exeter, Devon, England 18.NOAA, Geophys Fluid Dynam Lab, Princeton, NJ USA 19.IPSL, LMD, Paris, France 20.Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Inst Atmospher & Climate Sci, Zurich, Switzerland 21.Univ Colorado, Cooperat Inst Res Environm Sci, Boulder, CO 80309 USA 22.NCAR, Boulder, CO USA 23.NASA, Goddard Inst Space Studies, New York, NY 10025 USA 24.Univ Arizona, Tucson, AZ USA
Recommended Citation:
Eyring, Veronika,Cox, Peter M.,Flato, Gregory M.,et al. Taking climate model evaluation to the next level[J]. NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,2019-01-01,9(2):102-110