The current extinction and climate change crises pressure us to predict population dynamics with ever-greater accuracy. Although predictions rest on the well-advanced theory of age-structured populations, two key issues remain poorly explored. Specifically, how the age-dependency in demographic rates and the year-to-year interactions between survival and fecundity affect stochastic population growth rates. We use inference, simulations and mathematical derivations to explore how environmental perturbations determine population growth rates for populations with different age-specific demographic rates and when ages are reduced to stages. We find that stage- vs. age-based models can produce markedly divergent stochastic population growth rates. The differences are most pronounced when there are survival-fecundity-trade-offs, which reduce the variance in the population growth rate. Finally, the expected value and variance of the stochastic growth rates of populations with different age-specific demographic rates can diverge to the extent that, while some populations may thrive, others will inevitably go extinct.
1.Univ Southern Denmark, Interdisciplinary Ctr Populat Dynam, Campusvej 55, DK-5230 Odense M, Denmark 2.Univ Southern Denmark, Dept Math & Comp Sci, Campusvej 55, DK-5230 Odense M, Denmark 3.Univ Southern Denmark, Inst Biol, Campusvej 55, DK-5230 Odense M, Denmark 4.Species360 Conservat Sci Alliance, 7900 Int Dr,Suite 1040, Bloomington, MN 55425 USA 5.Univ Exeter, Ctr Ecol & Conservat, Coll Life & Environm Sci, Cornwall Campus, Penryn TR10 9EZ, Cornwall, England 6.Univ New South Wales, Evolut & Ecol Res Ctr, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia 7.Univ New South Wales, Sch Biol Earth & Environm Sci, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia 8.Univ Zurich, Dept Evolutionary Biol & Environm Studies, Winterthurerstr 190, CH-8057 Zurich, Switzerland 9.UniMail, Info Fauna Karch, Batiment G,Bellevaux 51, CH-2000 Neuchatel, Switzerland 10.Univ Oxford, Dept Zool, Oxford OX2 6GG, England 11.Univ Alcala De Henares, Dept Ciencias Vida, Madrid 28805, Spain 12.Duke Univ, Dept Biol & Evolutionary Anthropol, Durham, NC 27708 USA 13.Natl Museums Kenya, Inst Primate Res, Nairobi, Kenya 14.Inst Avian Res, Vogelwarte 21, D-26386 Wilhelmshaven, Germany 15.Iowa State Univ, Dept Ecol Evolut & Organismal Biol, 251 Bessey Hall, Ames, IA USA 16.Royal Zool Soc Antwerp, Ctr Res & Conservat, Koningin Astridpl, Antwerp, Belgium 17.Anim & Plant Hlth Agcy, Natl Wildlife Management Ctr, Woodchester Pk, Nympsfield GL10 3UJ, Glos, England 18.Yale Univ, Dept Anthropol, New Haven, CT 06511 USA 19.Sciencepk NOVI, Niels Jernes Vej 10, DK-9220 Aalborg O, Denmark 20.Univ Penn, Dept Anthropol, Philadelphia, PA 19104 USA 21.Univ Lyon 1, CNRS, UMR 5558, Lab Biometrie & Biol Evolut, F-69622 Villeurbanne, France 22.Penn State Univ, Dept Ecosyst Sci & Management, 411 Forest Resources Bldg, University Pk, PA 16802 USA 23.Te Papa Atawhai, Dept Conservat, POB 4715, Christchurch 8140, New Zealand 24.Univ Minnesota, Coll Biol Sci, Dept Ecol Evolut & Behav, 123 Snyder Hall,1475 Gortner Ave, St Paul, MN 55108 USA 25.Univ Toronto, Dept Ecol & Evolutionary Biol, Toronto, ON M5S 3B2, Canada 26.CEH Wallingford, Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Benson Lane, Wallingford OX10 8BB, Oxon, England 27.Univ Tasmania, Sch Biol Sci, Private Bag 5, Hobart, Tas, Australia 28.CNRS, Ctr Etud Biol Chize, F-79360 Villiers En Bois, France 29.Univ Oxford, Edward Grey Inst, Dept Zool, South Pk Rd, Oxford OX1 3PS, England 30.Univ Southern Denmark, Dept Publ Hlth, DK-5000 Odense, Denmark 31.Univ Fribourg, Dept Biol, Ch Musee 10, CH-1700 Fribourg, Switzerland
Recommended Citation:
Colchero, Fernando,Jones, Owen R.,Conde, Delia A.,et al. The diversity of population responses to environmental change[J]. ECOLOGY LETTERS,2019-01-01,22(2):342-353