globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.08.160
WOS记录号: WOS:000446076500056
论文题名:
The Mekong's future flows under multiple drivers: How climate change, hydropower developments and irrigation expansions drive hydrological changes
作者: Hoang, Long P.1; van Vliet, Michelle T. H.1; Kummu, Matti2; Lauri, Hannu3; Koponen, Jorma3; Supit, Iwan1; Leemans, Rik4; Kabat, Pavel1,5; Ludwig, Fulco1
通讯作者: Hoang, Long P.
刊名: SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
ISSN: 0048-9697
EISSN: 1879-1026
出版年: 2019
卷: 649, 页码:601-609
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Mekong basin ; Climate change ; Irrigation expansion ; Hydropower darns ; Hydrological impacts ; VMod model
WOS关键词: TONLE SAP LAKE ; FLOOD PULSE ; RIVER-BASIN ; SOUTHEAST-ASIA ; CHANGE IMPACTS ; DISCHARGE ; TEMPERATURE ; DELTA ; PRECIPITATION ; PRODUCTIVITY
WOS学科分类: Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology
英文摘要:

The river flow regime and water resources are highly important for economic growths, flood security, and ecosystem dynamics in the Mekong basin - an important transboundary river basin in South East Asia. The river flow, although remains relatively unregulated, is expected to be increasingly perturbed by climate change and rapidly accelerating socioeconomic developments. Current understanding about hydrological changes under the combined impacts of these drivers, however, remains limited. This study presents projected hydrological changes caused by multiple drivers, namely climate change, large-scale hydropower developments, and irrigated land expansions by 2050s. We found that the future flow regime is highly susceptible to all considered drivers, shown by substantial changes in both annual and seasonal flow distribution. While hydropower developments exhibit limited impacts on annual total flows, climate change and irrigation expansions cause changes of +15% and -3% in annual flows, respectively. However, hydropower developments show the largest seasonal impacts characterized by higher dry season flows (up to +70%) and lower wet season flows (-15%). These strong seasonal impacts tend to outplay those of the other drivers, resulting in the overall hydrological change pattern of strong increases of the dry season flow (up to + 160%); flow reduction in the first half of the wet season (up to -25%); and slight flow increase in the second half of the wet season (up to 40%). Furthermore, the cumulative impacts of all drivers cause substantial flow reductions during the early wet season (up to -25% in July), posing challenges for crop production and saltwater intrusion in the downstream Mekong Delta. Substantial flow changes and their consequences require careful considerations of future development activities, as well as timely adaptation to future changes. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/129549
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: 1.Wageningen Univ, Water Syst & Global Change Grp, POB 47, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands
2.Aalto Univ, Water & Dev Res Grp, POB 15200, Aalto, Finland
3.ETA Finland Ltd, Sinimaentie 10B, Espoo 02630, Finland
4.Wageningen Univ, Environm Syst Anal Grp, POB 47, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands
5.Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, Schtosspl 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria

Recommended Citation:
Hoang, Long P.,van Vliet, Michelle T. H.,Kummu, Matti,et al. The Mekong's future flows under multiple drivers: How climate change, hydropower developments and irrigation expansions drive hydrological changes[J]. SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,2019-01-01,649:601-609
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