"Everything changes and nothing stands still" (Heraclitus). Here we review three major improvements to freshwater aquatic ecosystem models - and ecological models in general - as water quality scenario analysis tools towards a sustainable future. To tackle the rapid and deeply connected dynamics characteristic of the Anthropocene, we argue for the inclusion of eco-evolutionary, novel ecosystem and social-ecological dynamics. These dynamics arise from adaptive responses in organisms and ecosystems to global environmental change and act at different integration levels and different time scales. We provide reasons and means to incorporate each improvement into aquatic ecosystem models. Throughout this study we refer to Lake Victoria as a microcosm of the evolving novel social-ecological systems of the Anthropocene. The Lake Victoria case clearly shows how interlinked eco-evolutionary, novel ecosystem and social-ecological dynamics are, and demonstrates the need for transdisciplinary research approaches towards global sustainability.
1.Netherlands Inst Ecol NIOO KNAW, Dept Aquat Ecol, POB 50, NL-6700 AB Wageningen, Netherlands 2.Wageningen Univ & Res, Aquat Ecol & Water Qual Management, POB 47, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands 3.Wageningen Univ & Res, Water Syst & Global Change Grp, POB 47, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands 4.PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, POB 30314, NL-2500 GH The Hague, Netherlands 5.Univ Utrecht, Fac Geosci, Dept Earth Sci Geochem, POB 80021, NL-3508 TA Utrecht, Netherlands 6.Witteveen Bos Consulting Engineers, Ecol Grp, POB 233, NL-7400 AE Deventer, Netherlands 7.Netherlands Inst Ecol NIOO KNAW, Dept Terr Ecol, POB 50, NL-6700 AB Wageningen, Netherlands 8.Univ Wurzburg, Theoret Evolutionary Ecol Grp, Dept Anim Ecol & Trop Biol, Wurzburg, Germany 9.USGS, Wetland & Aquat Res Ctr, Gainesville, FL 32653 USA 10.Stockholm Univ, Stockholm Resilience Ctr, Kraftriket,2B, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden 11.CUNY, Environm Sci Initiat, Adv Sci Res Ctr Grad Ctr, New York, NY 10031 USA 12.Finnish Environm Inst SYKE, Fresh Water Ctr, POB 140, Helsinki 00251, Finland 13.Wageningen Univ & Res, Biometris, Droevendaalsesteeg 1, NL-6708 PB Wageningen, Netherlands 14.Wageningen Univ & Res, Forest & Nat Conservat Policy Grp, POB 47, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands 15.UFZ Helmholtz Ctr Environm Res, Dept Lake Res, Bruckstr 3A, D-39114 Magdeburg, Germany 16.Deltares, Dept Ecol & Water Qual, POB 177, NL-2600 MH Delft, Netherlands 17.Stanford Univ, Nat Capital Project, Stanford, CA 94305 USA 18.IIASA, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria 19.Netherlands Inst Ecol NIOO KNAW, Dept Anim Ecol, POB 50, NL-6700 AB Wageningen, Netherlands 20.IHE Delft Inst Water Educ, Aquat Ecosyst Grp, POB 3015, NL-2601 DA Delft, Netherlands
Recommended Citation:
Mooij, Wolf M.,van Wijk, Dianneke,Beusen, Arthur H. W.,et al. Modeling water quality in the Anthropocene: directions for the next-generation aquatic ecosystem models[J]. CURRENT OPINION IN ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY,2019-01-01,36:85-95