globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s11356-017-0127-7
WOS记录号: WOS:000457726700009
论文题名:
Coupling population dynamics with earth system models: the POPEM model
作者: Navarro, Andres; Moreno, Raul; Jimenez-Alcazar, Alfonso; Tapiador, Francisco J.
通讯作者: Navarro, Andres
刊名: ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH
ISSN: 0944-1344
EISSN: 1614-7499
出版年: 2019
卷: 26, 期:4, 页码:3184-3195
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Pollution research ; Climate modeling ; System dynamics ; Anthropogenic emissions ; Climate change ; Population
WOS关键词: CARBON-DIOXIDE EMISSIONS ; INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; SPATIAL MICROSIMULATION ; AIR-POLLUTION ; EMIGRATION DYNAMICS ; URBAN-ENVIRONMENT ; LABOR MIGRATION ; LAND-USE ; TRENDS
WOS学科分类: Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology
英文摘要:

Precise modeling of CO2 emissions is important for environmental research. This paper presents a new model of human population dynamics that can be embedded into ESMs (Earth System Models) to improve climate modeling. Through a system dynamics approach, we develop a cohort-component model that successfully simulates historical population dynamics with fine spatial resolution (about 1 degrees x1 degrees). The population projections are used to improve the estimates of CO2 emissions, thus transcending the bulk approach of existing models and allowing more realistic non-linear effects to feature in the simulations. The module, dubbed POPEM (from Population Parameterization for Earth Models), is compared with current emission inventories and validated against UN aggregated data. Finally, it is shown that the module can be used to advance toward fully coupling the social and natural components of the Earth system, an emerging research path for environmental science and pollution research.


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被引频次[WOS]:5   [查看WOS记录]     [查看WOS中相关记录]
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/129586
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: Univ Castilla La Mancha, Inst Environm Sci ICAM, Av Carlos III, Toledo, Spain

Recommended Citation:
Navarro, Andres,Moreno, Raul,Jimenez-Alcazar, Alfonso,et al. Coupling population dynamics with earth system models: the POPEM model[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH,2019-01-01,26(4):3184-3195
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