globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.09.063
WOS记录号: WOS:000447092700128
论文题名:
Effects of 21st century climate change on seasonal flow regimes and hydrologic extremes over the Midwest and Great Lakes region of the US
作者: Byun, Kyuhyun; Chiu, Chun-Mei; Hamlet, Alan F.
通讯作者: Byun, Kyuhyun
刊名: SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
ISSN: 0048-9697
EISSN: 1879-1026
出版年: 2019
卷: 650, 页码:1261-1277
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change ; Hydrologic extremes ; Midwest and Great Lakes ; Flooding ; Low flows ; Extreme low soil moisture
WOS关键词: GLOBAL WATER-RESOURCES ; CHANGE IMPACTS ; CHANGE PROJECTIONS ; VIC-2L MODEL ; PRECIPITATION ; FLOODS ; RISK ; ADAPTATION ; STREAMFLOW ; FLUXES
WOS学科分类: Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology
英文摘要:

Analyzing future changes in hydrologic extremes such as floods, low flows, and soil moisture extremes is important because many impacts on ecosystems and human systems occur during extreme events. To quantify changes in hydrologic extremes, this study conducts hydrologic modeling experiments over 20 Midwestern watersheds using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model forced by historical observed datasets and future projections from statistically downscaled Global Climate Model (GCMs) simulations. Our results show that peak daily streamflow at the 100-yr reoccurrence interval will increase ( +10-30%) in most watersheds by 2080s due to significant increases in precipitation (P) and increasing P as rainfall during winter and spring seasons. The simulations also show strong shifts towards earlier peak flow timing (up to a month), especially in strongly snowmelt-dominated watersheds. These effects are linked to strong decreasing trends in maximum Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) with warming, which are simulated over essentially the entire domain. Projected changes in 7-day extreme low flows are smaller in magnitude ( - 10-+10%) with some what larger decreases simulated at the end of century; however, the timing of extreme low flows is projected to shift from winter/spring to summer and fall in strongly snowmelt-dominated watersheds in the northernmost parts of the domain. Extreme low soil moisture increases over most of the domain in the future projections up to the 2050s, but by the 2080s there are more widespread decreases in extreme low soil moisture, especially in the northernmost parts of the domain. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/129758
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: Univ Notre Dame, Dept Civil & Environm Engn & Earth Sci, Coll Engn, Notre Dame, IN 46556 USA

Recommended Citation:
Byun, Kyuhyun,Chiu, Chun-Mei,Hamlet, Alan F.. Effects of 21st century climate change on seasonal flow regimes and hydrologic extremes over the Midwest and Great Lakes region of the US[J]. SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,2019-01-01,650:1261-1277
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