globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.08.398
WOS记录号: WOS:000447092700068
论文题名:
Spatial distribution and changes of permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau revealed by statistical models during the period of 1980 to 2010
作者: Wang, Tianye1,2,3; Wu, Tonghua2; Wang, Ping1; Li, Ren2; Xie, Changwei2; Zou, Defu2
通讯作者: Wu, Tonghua
刊名: SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
ISSN: 0048-9697
EISSN: 1879-1026
出版年: 2019
卷: 650, 页码:661-670
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Permafrost distribution ; Permafrost changes ; Qinghai-Tibet Plateau ; Logistic regression model ; Multi-criteria analysis
WOS关键词: CLIMATE-CHANGE ; ACTIVE-LAYER ; LOGISTIC-REGRESSION ; THERMAL STATE ; VEGETATION DISTRIBUTION ; ALPINE PERMAFROST ; QILIAN MOUNTAINS ; EUROPEAN ALPS ; HOVSGOL AREA ; DEGRADATION
WOS学科分类: Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology
英文摘要:

The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP), where is underlain by the highest and most extensive mid-altitude permafrost, is undergoing more dramatic climatic warming than its surrounding regions. Mapping the distribution of permafrost is of great importance to assess the impacts of permafrost changes on the regional climate system. In this study, we applied logistic regression model (LRM) andmulti-criteria analysis (MCA) methods to map the decadal permafrost distribution on the QTP and to assess permafrost dynamics from the 1980s to 2000s. The occurrence of permafrost and its impacting factors (i.e., climatic and topographic elements) were constructed from in-situ field investigation-derived permafrost distribution patterns in 4 selected study regions. The validation results indicate that both LRM and MCA could efficiently map the permafrost distribution on the QTP. The areas of permafrost simulated by LRM and MCA are 1.23 x 10(6) km(2) and 1.20 x 10(6) km(2), respectively, between 2008 and 2012. The LRM and MCA modeling results revealed that permafrost area has significantly decreased at a rate of 0.066 x 10(6) km(2) decade(-1) over the past 30 years, and the decrease of permafrost area is accelerating. The sensitivity test results indicated that LRM did well in identifying the spatial distribution of permafrost and seasonally frozen ground, and MCA did well in reflecting permafrost dynamics. More parameters such as vegetation, soil property, and soil moisture are suggested to be integrated into the models to enhance the performance of both models. (C) 2018 Published by Elsevier B.V.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/129764
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Cryosphere Res Stn Qinghai Tibet Plateau, State Key Lab Cryospher Sci, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China
3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China

Recommended Citation:
Wang, Tianye,Wu, Tonghua,Wang, Ping,et al. Spatial distribution and changes of permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau revealed by statistical models during the period of 1980 to 2010[J]. SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,2019-01-01,650:661-670
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