全球变化知识资源中心

Historical management practices could have a strong effect on the current status of forests and therefore affect the potential for outbreaks of forest pests. We tested whether forest management history and forest tending of Norway spruce affects the potential for bark beetle outbreaks after large disturbances. We also assessed the effect of the proportion of spruce under epidemic situations and different altitudes. For this survey we used long-term data on sanitary felling and forest inventory data. Forest management history was defined by the change in the forest compared to the natural forest composition and was divided into four classes of change in tree species composition. We compared the proportion of spruce and sanitary felling because of bark beetles with the different classes of change in tree species composition. Forest tending was analyzed by looking at how the proportion of realized cut in relation to the planned cut affected sanitary felling. The analysis was done with Bayesian modeling including both spatial autocorrelation and random effects. There was a strong association between the change in the forest tree species composition and the proportion of Norway spruce and sanitary felling because of spruce bark beetles. Interactions were observed between epidemic periods, the proportion of Norway spruce and altitude. Altitude had a negative influence and the proportion of Norway spruce had a positive influence on sanitary felling. During epidemic periods, sanitary felling was amplified at lower altitudes and in areas with a higher proportion of Norway spruce. Furthermore, there was a negative association between the proportion of realized cut in relation to the planned cut and sanitary felling in periods after abiotic stress. It is therefore suggested that monocultures of Norway spruce should be converted to mixed forests and that maintenance of the forest should be improved to increase resistance to bark beetle outbreaks.