DOI: 10.1306/08101515059
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84968736724
论文题名: A practical guide to the use of success versus failure statistics in the estimation of prospect risk
作者: Peel F.J. ; Brooks J.R.V.
刊名: AAPG Bulletin
ISSN: 0149-1428
EISSN: 1558-9158
出版年: 2016
发表日期: 2016
卷: 100, 期: 2 起始页码: 137
结束页码: 150
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Errors
; Table lookup
; Calculated values
; Exploration data
; Exploration success
; Failure statistics
; Look up table
; Practical guide
; Rule of succession
; Statistical datas
; Risk perception
; data set
; estimation method
; exploration
; future prospect
; literature review
; risk perception
; statistical data
Scopus学科分类: Energy
; Earth and Planetary Sciences
英文摘要: Statistical data documenting past exploration success and failure can be used to inform the estimate of future chance of success, but this is not appropriate to every situation. Even where appropriate, past frequency is not numerically equivalent to future expectation unless the sample size is very large. Using the rule of succession, we calculate the appropriate predicted chance of future success that can be used for smaller sample numbers, typical of exploration data sets, which include both successes and failures. The results, presented as a simple look-up table, show that the error that would result from using simple frequency instead of the appropriately calculated value is particularly severe for small samples (>10% error arising if N < 9). This error is least if the past success rate is close to 0.5, but it increases markedly if the past data consist of mostly failure or mostly success. We review the conditions in which past frequency can be used as a guide and the circumstances in which it does not reflect future chance. Past success frequency should only be used as a guide to future chance if the past tests and future opportunities belong to the same play and are similar as far as the available data allow. They should not be used if the historical tests have selectively sampled the "cream" of the pool of opportunities. © Copyright 2016. The American Association of Petroleum Geologists. All rights reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84968736724&doi=10.1306%2f08101515059&partnerID=40&md5=b05ef4baa4ad39581417bc4392d4f376
Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/12999
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建 影响、适应和脆弱性 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略 全球变化的国际研究计划 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
There are no files associated with this item.
Recommended Citation:
Peel F.J.,Brooks J.R.V.. A practical guide to the use of success versus failure statistics in the estimation of prospect risk[J]. AAPG Bulletin,2016-01-01,100(2)