DOI: 10.1306/070615045
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84959020098
论文题名: What to expect when you are prospecting: How new information changes our estimate of the chance of success of a prospect
作者: Peel F.J. ; Brooks J.R.V.
刊名: AAPG Bulletin
ISSN: 0149-1443
EISSN: 1558-9173
出版年: 2015
发表日期: 2015
卷: 99, 期: 12 起始页码: 2159
结束页码: 2171
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Exploration prospects
; Real-world
; Natural resources exploration
Scopus学科分类: Energy
; Earth and Planetary Sciences
英文摘要: There is a common belief that we can expect to add value to a prospect or prospect portfolio by improving the prospect chance of success (Pg) as a consequence of acquiring information and doing work. Established laws of probability dictate that this is incorrect. We do expect new information to add value to the exploration cycle, but not by an expectation of improving the prospect risk. New information may result in an increase or a decrease of Pg, but the expected result (the average of all possible outcomes) is zero change. Moreover, for a typical exploration prospect (Pg < 0.5), we expect that new information will downgrade more prospects Pg than are upgraded. Real-world prospect data are neither suitable nor publically available to study this. Instead, the concept is explored using an analogous process (prenatal prediction of fetus gender) for which good statistics exist, and by creating a synthetic prospect that can be analyzed in a repeatable way. The results support the predictions made above. © Copyright 2015. The American Association of Petroleum Geologists. All rights reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84959020098&doi=10.1306%2f070615045&partnerID=40&md5=eb72ee12fdc4a5d6770f59d496201474
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/13014
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建 影响、适应和脆弱性 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略 全球变化的国际研究计划 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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Recommended Citation:
Peel F.J.,Brooks J.R.V.. What to expect when you are prospecting: How new information changes our estimate of the chance of success of a prospect[J]. AAPG Bulletin,2015-01-01,99(12)