Excessive nitrogen runoff leads to degraded water quality, harming human and ecosystem health. We examine the impact of changes in land use and land management for six combinations of socioeconomic pathways and climate outcomes, and find that societal choices will substantially impact riverine total nitrogen loading (+54% to -7%) for the continental United States by the end of the century. Regional impacts will be even larger. Increased loading is possible for both high emission and low emission pathways, due to increased food and biofuel demand, respectively. Some pathways, however, suggest that limiting climate change and eutrophication can be achieved concurrently. Precipitation changes will further exacerbate loading, resulting in a net increase of 1 to 68%. Globally, increases in cropland area and agricultural intensification will likely impact vast portions of Asia. Societal and climate trends must therefore both be considered in designing strategies for managing inland and coastal water quality.
1.Carnegie Inst Sci, Dept Global Ecol, 260 Panama St, Stanford, CA 94305 USA 2.Stanford Univ, Dept Earth Syst Sci, 473 Via Ortega,Room 140, Stanford, CA 94305 USA 3.Pacific Northwest Natl Lab, Joint Global Change Res Inst, 5825 Univ Res Court,Suite 3500, College Pk, MD 20740 USA 4.Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Earth Syst Lab, 1850 Table Mesa Dr, Boulder, CO 80305 USA 5.Pacific Northwest Natl Lab, Atmospher Sci & Global Change Div, 902 Battelle Blvd, Richland, WA 99352 USA
Recommended Citation:
Sinha, E.,Michalak, A. M.,Calvin, K. V.,et al. Societal decisions about climate mitigation will have dramatic impacts on eutrophication in the 21st century[J]. NATURE COMMUNICATIONS,2019-01-01,10