globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2018.12.044
WOS记录号: WOS:000460845700074
论文题名:
Impacts of climate change on electricity demand in China: An empirical estimation based on panel data
作者: Fan, Jing-Li1,2; Hu, Jia-Wei1; Zhang, Xian3
通讯作者: Zhang, Xian
刊名: ENERGY
ISSN: 0360-5442
EISSN: 1873-6785
出版年: 2019
卷: 170, 页码:880-888
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Electricity demand ; Climate change vulnerability ; Degree day ; Panel data ; China
WOS关键词: ENERGY-CONSUMPTION ; ECONOMIC-GROWTH ; WATER ; NEXUS ; PRICE ; MODEL
WOS学科分类: Thermodynamics ; Energy & Fuels
WOS研究方向: Thermodynamics ; Energy & Fuels
英文摘要:

Electricity sector is sensitive to climate change. In this study, a fixed-effect regression feedback model is used to estimate the impacts of climatic factors on electricity demand in China by using panel data of 30 provinces from 1995 to 2016. We also forecast the potential impacts of climate change on future electricity demand under three climate change scenarios. The results show that (1) there is a positive effect of the heating degree day (HDD) and cooling degree day (CDD) on the per capita electricity demand. A 1% increase in the CDD will result in a 0.094% increase in per capita electricity demand, while the same rise of HDD will increase per capita electricity demand by 0.061%. In addition, the per capita electricity demand will decrease by 0.017% if the sunshine duration increases 1%, while the effect of rainfall is not significant. (2) The total changes in electricity demand caused by climatic factors by 2100 under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios will be 69.52 billion kWh, 222.74 billion kWh, and 518.58 billion kWh, representing 1.0%, 3.53%, and 8.53% of the total electricity consumption in China in 2017, respectively. The effect of climate warming on China's electricity demand is apparent. (C) 2018 Published by Elsevier Ltd.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/130398
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.China Univ Min & Technol Beijing, Sch Resources & Safety Engn, Beijing 100083, Peoples R China
2.Beijing Inst Technol CEEP BIT, Ctr Energy & Environm Policy Res, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China
3.Minist Sci & Technol, Adm Ctr Chinas Agenda 21, Beijing 100038, Peoples R China

Recommended Citation:
Fan, Jing-Li,Hu, Jia-Wei,Zhang, Xian. Impacts of climate change on electricity demand in China: An empirical estimation based on panel data[J]. ENERGY,2019-01-01,170:880-888
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