globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2018.10.030
WOS记录号: WOS:000457952700037
论文题名:
Comparison of meteorological and satellite-based drought indices as yield predictors of Spanish cereals
作者: Garcia-Leon, David1,2; Contreras, Sergio3; Hunink, Johannes3
通讯作者: Garcia-Leon, David
刊名: AGRICULTURAL WATER MANAGEMENT
ISSN: 0378-3774
EISSN: 1873-2283
出版年: 2019
卷: 213, 页码:388-396
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Cereal yields ; Agricultural drought ; NDVI ; LST ; InfoSequia ; ESYRCE
WOS关键词: MAIZE YIELD ; CROP ; VEGETATION ; WATER ; TEMPERATURE ; VARIABILITY ; CHALLENGES ; ANOMALIES ; IMPACTS ; SPAIN02
WOS学科分类: Agronomy ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向: Agriculture ; Water Resources
英文摘要:

In the context of global warming, as drought episodes become increasingly frequent, it is crucial to accurately measure the impacts of droughts on the overall performance of agrosystems. This study aims to compare the effectiveness of meteorological drought indices against satellite-based agronomical drought indices as crop yield explanatory factors in statistical models calibrated at a local scale. The analysis is conducted in Spain using a spatially detailed, 12-year (2003-2015) dataset on crop yields, including different types of cereals. Yields and drought indices were spatially aggregated at the agricultural district level. The Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI), computed at different temporal aggregation levels, and two satellite-based drought indices, the Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) and the Temperature Condition Index (TCI), were used to characterise the dynamics of drought severity conditions in the study area. Models resting on satellite-based indices showed higher performance in explaining yield levels as well as yield anomalies for all the crops evaluated. In particular, VCI/TCI models of winter wheat and barley were able to explain 70% and 40% of annual crop yield level and crop yield anomaly variability, respectively. We also observed gains in explanatory power when models for climate zones (instead of models at the national scale) were considered. All the results were cross-validated on subsamples of the whole dataset and on models fitted to individual agricultural districts and their predictive accuracy was assessed with a real-time forecasting exercise. Results from this study highlight the potential for including satellite-based drought indices in agricultural decision support systems (e.g. agricultural drought early warning systems, crop yield forecasting models or water resource management tools) complementing meteorological drought indices derived from precipitation grids.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/130504
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.Ca Foscari Univ Venice, Dept Environm Sci Informat & Stat, Via Torino 155, I-30172 Venice, Italy
2.Euromediterranean Ctr Climate Change, Via Liberta 12, I-30175 Venice, Italy
3.FutureWater, Calle Azucena,23, Cartagena 30205, Spain

Recommended Citation:
Garcia-Leon, David,Contreras, Sergio,Hunink, Johannes. Comparison of meteorological and satellite-based drought indices as yield predictors of Spanish cereals[J]. AGRICULTURAL WATER MANAGEMENT,2019-01-01,213:388-396
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