全球变化知识资源中心

Climate change and its effect on life is a big challenge for scientists all over the world. Global biodiversity has diminished in recent years because of climate change, human developments and some other factors. One reason for wildlife population loss is habitat degradation caused by climate change. Predicting habitat suitability can help wildlife managers to protect wildlife more effectively. Accordingly, in this study, we used present habitat suitability of five species of wild Bovidae in Iran to predict climate change effects on their habitats for a future condition over 62years. To predict this, four RCPs and one GCM in four CC scenarios were used. Our results revealed that climate variables are important to predict suitable habitats. This study showed that at present time suitable habitats for wild goat, Urial wild sheep, Armenian wild sheep, goitered gazelle and jebeer in Iran's total area are 5.5%, 5.8%, 5.9%, 4.9% and 5.2%, respectively. The results also reveal that in the future 59.83%, 60.89%, 59.18%, 53.57%, 69.86% of current suitable habitats will be lost for each species, respectively, over 62years. Based on the result of our study, it seems more than 60% of suitable habitat for the studied species will be destroyed over this time period. In our opinion, wildlife managers should consider the remaining suitable habitats as some parts of a protected area before the conditions get irreversible.