globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1002/eap.1837
WOS记录号: WOS:000460170200020
论文题名:
The sensitivity of the forest carbon budget shifts across processes along with stand development and climate change
作者: Collalti, Alessio1,2; Thornton, Peter E.3,4; Cescatti, Alessandro5; Rita, Angelo6; Borghetti, Marco6; Nole, Angelo6; Trotta, Carlo7; Ciais, Philippe8; Matteucci, Giorgio1
通讯作者: Collalti, Alessio
刊名: ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS
ISSN: 1051-0761
EISSN: 1939-5582
出版年: 2019
卷: 29, 期:2
语种: 英语
英文关键词: autotrophic respiration ; climate change ; forest development ; forest structuring ; model sensitivity ; model uncertainty ; net primary productivity
WOS关键词: BIOME-BGC MODEL ; ELEVATED GROWTH TEMPERATURES ; EDDY COVARIANCE DATA ; LAND-SURFACE MODEL ; ECOSYSTEM MODEL ; MANAGED FORESTS ; PARAMETER UNCERTAINTIES ; VEGETATION DYNAMICS ; PLANT GEOGRAPHY ; CO2 ENRICHMENT
WOS学科分类: Ecology ; Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology
英文摘要:

The future trajectory of atmospheric CO2 concentration depends on the development of the terrestrial carbon sink, which in turn is influenced by forest dynamics under changing environmental conditions. An in-depth understanding of model sensitivities and uncertainties in non-steady-state conditions is necessary for reliable and robust projections of forest development and under scenarios of global warming and CO2 enrichment. Here, we systematically assessed if a biogeochemical process-based model (3D-CMCC-CNR), which embeds similarities with many other vegetation models, applied in simulating net primary productivity (NPP) and standing woody biomass (SWB), maintained a consistent sensitivity to its 55 input parameters through time, during forest ageing and structuring as well as under climate change scenarios. Overall, the model applied at three contrasting European forests showed low sensitivity to the majority of its parameters. Interestingly, model sensitivity to parameters varied through the course of >100 yr of simulations. In particular, the model showed a large responsiveness to the allometric parameters used for initialize forest carbon and nitrogen pools early in forest simulation (i.e., for NPP up to similar to 37%, 256 g C.m(-2).yr(-1) and for SWB up to similar to 90%, 65 Mg C/ha, when compared to standard simulation), with this sensitivity decreasing sharply during forest development. At medium to longer time scales, and under climate change scenarios, the model became increasingly more sensitive to additional and/or different parameters controlling biomass accumulation and autotrophic respiration (i.e., for NPP up to similar to 30%, 167 g C.m(-2).yr(-1) and for SWB up to similar to 24%, 64 Mg C/ha, when compared to standard simulation). Interestingly, model outputs were shown to be more sensitive to parameters and processes controlling stand development rather than to climate change (i.e., warming and changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration) itself although model sensitivities were generally higher under climate change scenarios. Our results suggest the need for sensitivity and uncertainty analyses that cover multiple temporal scales along forest developmental stages to better assess the potential of future forests to act as a global terrestrial carbon sink.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/130705
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.CNR ISAFOM, Inst Agr & Forestry Syst Mediterranean, Natl Res Council Italy, I-87036 Rende Cosenza, Italy
2.Fdn Euromediterranean Ctr Climate Change, Impacts Agr Forests & Ecosyst Serv CMCC IAPES, I-01100 Viterbo, Italy
3.Oak Ridge Natl Lab, Environm Sci Div, POB 2009, Oak Ridge, TN 37830 USA
4.Oak Ridge Natl Lab, Climate Change Sci Inst, POB 2009, Oak Ridge, TN 37830 USA
5.European Commis, Joint Res Ctr, Directorate Sustainable Resources, Ispra, Italy
6.Univ Basilicata, Scuola Sci Agr Forestali Alimentari & Ambientali, Viale dellAteneo Lucano 10, I-85100 Potenza, Potenza, Italy
7.Univ Tuscia, Dept Innovat Biol Agrofood & Forest Syst DIBAF, I-01100 Viterbo, Italy
8.IPSL LSCE CEA CNRS UVSQ UPSaclay Ctr Etud Orme Me, F-91191 Gif Sur Yvette, France

Recommended Citation:
Collalti, Alessio,Thornton, Peter E.,Cescatti, Alessandro,et al. The sensitivity of the forest carbon budget shifts across processes along with stand development and climate change[J]. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS,2019-01-01,29(2)
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