globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1029/2018EF001071
WOS记录号: WOS:000463987100008
论文题名:
Meeting User Needs for Sea Level Rise Information: A Decision Analysis Perspective
作者: Hinkel, Jochen1,2,3; Church, John A.4; Gregory, Jonathan M.5,6; Lambert, Erwin7; Le Cozannet, Goneri8; Lowe, Jason6,9; McInnes, Kathleen L.10; Nicholls, Robert J.11; van der Pol, Thomas D.1; van de Wal, Roderik7,12
通讯作者: Hinkel, Jochen
刊名: EARTHS FUTURE
ISSN: 2328-4277
出版年: 2019
卷: 7, 期:3, 页码:320-337
语种: 英语
英文关键词: coastal adaptation ; sea-level rise information ; climate service ; robust decision making
WOS关键词: CLIMATE-CHANGE ; EXPERT JUDGMENT ; REAL OPTIONS ; UNCERTAINTY ; MANAGEMENT ; PROJECTIONS ; PREDICTION ; FORECASTS ; SCENARIOS ; TIME
WOS学科分类: Environmental Sciences ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

Despite widespread efforts to implement climate services, there is almost no literature that systematically analyzes users' needs. This paper addresses this gap by applying a decision analysis perspective to identify what kind of mean sea level rise (SLR) information is needed for local coastal adaptation decisions. We first characterize these decisions, then identify suitable decision analysis approaches and the sea level information required, and finally discuss if and how these information needs can be met given the state of the art of sea level science. We find that four types of information are needed: (i) probabilistic predictions for short-term decisions when users are uncertainty tolerant; (ii) high-end and low-end SLR scenarios chosen for different levels of uncertainty tolerance; (iii) upper bounds of SLR for users with a low uncertainty tolerance; and (iv) learning scenarios derived from estimating what knowledge will plausibly emerge about SLR over time. Probabilistic predictions can only be attained for the near term (i.e., 2030-2050) before SLR significantly diverges between low and high emission scenarios, for locations for which modes of climate variability are well understood and the vertical land movement contribution to local sea levels is small. Meaningful SLR upper bounds cannot be defined unambiguously from a physical perspective. Low- to high-end scenarios for different levels of uncertainty tolerance and learning scenarios can be produced, but this involves both expert and user judgments. The decision analysis procedure elaborated here can be applied to other types of climate information that are required for mitigation and adaptation purposes.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/130937
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.GCF, Berlin, Germany
2.Humboldt Univ, Albrecht Daniel Thaer Inst, Div Resource Econ, Berlin, Germany
3.Humboldt Univ, Berlin Workshop Inst Anal Social Ecol Syst WINS, Berlin, Germany
4.Univ New South Wales, Climate Change Res Ctr, Sydney, NSW, Australia
5.Univ Reading, NCAS, Reading, Berks, England
6.Met Off Hadley Ctr, Exeter, Devon, England
7.Univ Utrecht, Inst Marine & Atmospher Res Utrecht, Utrecht, Netherlands
8.French Geol Survey, BRGM, Orleans, France
9.Univ Leeds, Priestley Int Ctr Climate, Leeds, W Yorkshire, England
10.CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Aspendale, Vic, Australia
11.Univ Southampton, Sch Engn, Southampton, Hants, England
12.Univ Utrecht, Geosci, Phys Geog, Utrecht, Netherlands

Recommended Citation:
Hinkel, Jochen,Church, John A.,Gregory, Jonathan M.,et al. Meeting User Needs for Sea Level Rise Information: A Decision Analysis Perspective[J]. EARTHS FUTURE,2019-01-01,7(3):320-337
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