globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-08745-6
WOS ID: WOS:000459988600017
Title:
State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes
Author: Schewe, Jacob1; Gosling, Simon N.2; Reyer, Christopher1; Zhao, Fang3; Ciais, Philippe4; Elliott, Joshua5,6; Francois, Louis7; Huber, Veronika8; Lotze, Heike K.9; Seneviratne, Sonia, I10; van Vliet, Michelle T. H.11; Vautard, Robert4; Wada, Yoshihide12; Breuer, Lutz13,14; Buechner, Matthias1; Carozza, David A.15,44; Chang, Jinfeng4; Coll, Marta16; Deryng, Delphine17,18; de Wit, Allard19; Eddy, Tyler D.9,20,21; Folberth, Christian12; Frieler, Katja1; Friend, Andrew D.22; Gerten, Dieter1,23; Gudmundsson, Lukas10; Hanasaki, Naota24; Ito, Akihiko24; Khabarov, Nikolay12; Kim, Hyungjun25; Lawrence, Peter26; Morfopoulos, Catherine27; Mueller, Christoph1; Schmied, Hannes Mueller28,29; Orth, Rene30,31; Ostberg, Sebastian1; Pokhrel, Yadu32; Pugh, Thomas A. M.33,34; Sakurai, Gen35; Satoh, Yusuke11,24; Schmid, Erwin36; Stacke, Tobias37; Steenbeek, Jeroen38; Steinkamp, Joerg29,45; Tang, Qiuhong39; Tian, Hanqin40; Tittensor, Derek P.9,41; Volkholz, Jan1; Wang, Xuhui4,42,43; Warszawski, Lila1
Corresponding Author: Schewe, Jacob
Source Publication: NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
ISSN: 2041-1723
Publishing Year: 2019
Volume: 10
Language: 英语
WOS Keyword: 2003 HEAT-WAVE ; SOIL-MOISTURE ; LAND-SURFACE ; MULTIMODEL ASSESSMENT ; PRIMARY PRODUCTIVITY ; EUROPEAN HEATWAVE ; MORTALITY ; SUMMER ; WATER ; TEMPERATURE
WOS Category: Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS Research Area: Science & Technology - Other Topics
English Abstract:

Global impact models represent process-level understanding of how natural and human systems may be affected by climate change. Their projections are used in integrated assessments of climate change. Here we test, for the first time, systematically across many important systems, how well such impact models capture the impacts of extreme climate conditions. Using the 2003 European heat wave and drought as a historical analogue for comparable events in the future, we find that a majority of models underestimate the extremeness of impacts in important sectors such as agriculture, terrestrial ecosystems, and heat-related human mortality, while impacts on water resources and hydropower are overestimated in some river basins; and the spread across models is often large. This has important implications for economic assessments of climate change impacts that rely on these models. It also means that societal risks from future extreme events may be greater than previously thought.


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Document Type: 期刊论文
Identifier: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/131653
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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Affiliation: 1.Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Member Leibniz Assoc, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany
2.Univ Nottingham, Sch Geog, Nottingham NG7 2RD, England
3.East China Normal Univ, Sch Geog Sci, Shanghai 200241, Peoples R China
4.UVSQ, CNRS, CEA, Lab Sci Climat & Environm, F-91191 Gif Sur Yvette, France
5.Univ Chicago, 5735S Ellis Ave, Chicago, IL 60637 USA
6.ANL Computat Inst, 5735S Ellis Ave, Chicago, IL 60637 USA
7.Univ Liege, Inst Astrophys & Geophys, UR SPHERES, B-4000 Liege, Belgium
8.Univ Pablo de Olavide, Dept Phys Chem & Nat Syst, Ctra de Utrera 1, Seville 41013, Spain
9.Dalhousie Univ, Dept Biol, Halifax, NS B3H 4R2, Canada
10.Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Land Climate Dynam, Inst Atmospher & Climate Sci, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland
11.Wageningen Univ, Water Syst & Global Change Grp, POB 47, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands
12.Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, Schlosspl 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
13.Justus Liebig Univ Giessen, Res Ctr BioSyst Land Use & Nutr iFZ, Inst Landscape Ecol & Resources Management ILR, Heinrich Buff Ring 26, D-35390 Giessen, Germany
14.Justus Liebig Univ Giessen, Ctr Int Dev & Environm Res ZEU, Senckenbergstr 3, D-35392 Giessen, Germany
15.McGill Univ, Dept Earth & Planetary Sci, Montreal, PQ H3A 0E8, Canada
16.CSIC, ICM, Inst Marine Sci, E-08003 Barcelona, Spain
17.Leibniz Ctr Agr Landscape Res ZALF, D-15374 Muncheberg, Germany
18.Humboldt Univ, IRI THEsys, D-10117 Berlin, Germany
19.Wageningen Environm Res, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands
20.Univ British Columbia, Inst Oceans & Fisheries, Nereus Program, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada
21.Univ South Carolina, Sch Earth Ocean & Environm, Inst Marine & Coastal Sci, Nereus Program, Columbia, SC 29208 USA
22.Univ Cambridge, Dept Geog, Cambridge CB2 3EN, England
23.Humboldt Univ, Geog Dept, D-10099 Berlin, Germany
24.Natl Inst Environm Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058506, Japan
25.Univ Tokyo, Inst Ind Sci, Tokyo 1538505, Japan
26.Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Terr Sci Sect, 1850 Table Mesa Dr, Boulder, CO 80305 USA
27.Imperial Coll London, Dept Life Sci, Silwood Pk Campus Buckhurst Rd, Ascot SL5 7PY, Berks, England
28.Goethe Univ Frankfurt, Inst Phys Geog, Altenhoferallee 1, D-60438 Frankfurt, Germany
29.Senckenberg Biodivers & Climate Res Ctr SBiK F, Senckenberganlage 25, D-60325 Frankfurt, Germany
30.Stockholm Univ, Bolin Ctr Climate Res, Dept Phys Geog, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden
31.Max Planck Inst Biogeochem, Dept Biogeochem Integrat, D-07745 Jena, Germany
32.Michigan State Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, E Lansing, MI 48824 USA
33.Univ Birmingham, Sch Geog Earth & Environm Sci, Birmingham B15 2TT, W Midlands, England
34.Univ Birmingham, Birmingham Inst Forest Res, Birmingham B15 2TT, W Midlands, England
35.Natl Agr & Food Res Org, Inst Agro Environm Sci, 3-1-3 Kannondai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058604, Japan
36.Univ Nat Resources & Life Sci, Feistmantelstr 4, A-1180 Vienna, Austria
37.Max Planck Inst Meteorol, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany
38.Ecopath Int Initiat, Bellaterra 08193, Spain
39.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
40.Auburn Univ, Sch Forestry & Wildlife Sci, 602 Duncan Dr, Auburn, AL 36849 USA
41.World Conservat Monitoring Ctr, UN Environm Programme, 219 Huntingdon Rd, Cambridge CB3 0DP, England
42.Peking Univ, Coll Urban & Environm Sci, Sino French Inst Earth Syst Sci, Beijing 100871, Peoples R China
43.Univ Paris 06, Lab Meteorol Dynam, F-75005 Paris, France
44.Univ Quebec Montreal, Dept Math, Montreal, PQ H2X 3Y7, Canada
45.Johannes Gutenberg Univ Mainz, Anselm Franz von Bentzel Weg 12, D-55128 Mainz, Germany

Recommended Citation:
Schewe, Jacob,Gosling, Simon N.,Reyer, Christopher,et al. State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes[J]. NATURE COMMUNICATIONS,2019-01-01,10
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