globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1007/s10113-018-1437-0
WOS记录号: WOS:000461300900016
论文题名:
A quantitative assessment of mid-term risks of global change on forests in Western Mediterranean Europe
作者: Gil-Tena, Assu1; Moran-Ordonez, Alejandra1,2; Comas, Lluis2,3; Retana, Javier2,3; Vayreda, Jordi2,3; Brotons, Lluis1,2,4
通讯作者: Brotons, Lluis
刊名: REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE
ISSN: 1436-3798
EISSN: 1436-378X
出版年: 2019
卷: 19, 期:3, 页码:819-831
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change ; Deforestation ; Fires ; IPCC-SRES climate projections ; Monospecific forests ; Old-growth forests
WOS关键词: CLIMATE-CHANGE ; FIRE REGIME ; GROWTH ; CATALONIA ; PATTERNS
WOS学科分类: Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology
英文摘要:

Assessment of potential forests' threats due to multiple global change components is urgently needed since increasing exposure to them could undermine their future persistence. We aim to assess the risks to the persistence of monospecific forests in Western Mediterranean Europe posed by climate change, fire, and land-use changes (i.e., deforestation) in the short and medium terms (horizon 2040). We specifically evaluate whether the degree of risk related to the likelihood of hazard occurrence varies depending on seral stage, tree species, and climate gradients. We performed the risk assessment on forests of Catalonia (NE Spain) through a combination of correlative and process-based modeling approaches and future global change scenarios. Overall, climate suitability of forests showed a general decrease by 2040, with the exception of xeric Pinus halepensis forests mainly distributed in the driest climate of the study area. Forest stands dominated by low drought-tolerant species were at higher risk of losing climatic suitability than forests dominated by Mediterranean species. The highest fire and deforestation risks were predicted for forest stands in dry climate where human pressures are higher. Nevertheless, high deforestation risk was also attained outside the driest areas. Deforestation risk was lower in old-growth than in younger stands, whereas old-growth forests in the Wet climate or dominated by Pinus sylvestris were projected to be at higher fire risk than younger forests. Our results suggest that conservation actions should target forest stands in dry climate. Moreover, old-growth forest stands should also be prioritized due to their particular sensitivity to disturbances and their high ecological value.


Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/131658
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: 1.CTFC CREAF, InForest Joint Res Unit, Solsona 25280, Spain
2.CREAF, Cerdanyola Del Valles 08193, Spain
3.Univ Autonoma Barcelona, Cerdanyola Del Valles 08193, Spain
4.CSIC, Cerdanyola Del Valles 08193, Spain

Recommended Citation:
Gil-Tena, Assu,Moran-Ordonez, Alejandra,Comas, Lluis,et al. A quantitative assessment of mid-term risks of global change on forests in Western Mediterranean Europe[J]. REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE,2019-01-01,19(3):819-831
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Gil-Tena, Assu]'s Articles
[Moran-Ordonez, Alejandra]'s Articles
[Comas, Lluis]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[Gil-Tena, Assu]'s Articles
[Moran-Ordonez, Alejandra]'s Articles
[Comas, Lluis]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[Gil-Tena, Assu]‘s Articles
[Moran-Ordonez, Alejandra]‘s Articles
[Comas, Lluis]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.