globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.3390/ijerph16061026
WOS记录号: WOS:000465159500126
论文题名:
Temperature-Related Summer Mortality Under Multiple Climate, Population, and Adaptation Scenarios
作者: Lee, Jae Young1,2; Lee, Woo-Seop3; Ebi, Kristie L.4; Kim, Ho1,2
通讯作者: Kim, Ho
刊名: INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH
ISSN: 1660-4601
出版年: 2019
卷: 16, 期:6
语种: 英语
英文关键词: projection ; future mortality ; climate change ; adaptation ; population change
WOS关键词: HEAT-RELATED MORTALITY ; IMPACTS ; PROJECTION
WOS学科分类: Environmental Sciences ; Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
英文摘要:

Projections of the magnitude and pattern of possible health risks from climate change should be based on multiple climate and development scenarios to describe the range of uncertainties, to inform effective and efficient policies. For a better understanding of climate change-related risks in seven metropolitan cities of South Korea, we estimated temperature-related summer (June to August) mortality until 2100 using projected changes in climate, population, and adaptation. In addition, we extracted the variations in the mortality estimates associated with uncertainties in climate, population, and adaptation scenarios using 25 climate models, two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5), three population scenarios (high, medium and low variants), and four adaptation scenarios (absolute threshold shift, slope reduction in the temperature-mortality relationship, a combination of slope reduction and threshold shift, and a sigmoid function based on the historical trend). Compared to the baseline period (1991-2015), temperature-attributable mortality in South Korea during summer in the 2090s is projected to increase 5.1 times for RCP 4.5 and 12.9 times for RCP 8.5 due to climate and population changes. Estimated future mortality varies by up to +44%/-55%, -80%, -60%, and +12%/-11% associated with the choice of climate models, adaptation, climate, and population scenarios, respectively, compared to the mortality estimated for the median of the climate models, no adaptation, RCP 8.5, and medium population variant. Health system choices about adaptation are the most important determinants of future mortality after climate projections. The range of possible future mortality underscores the importance of flexible, iterative risk management.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/131726
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.Seoul Natl Univ, Inst Hlth & Environm, Seoul 08826, South Korea
2.Seoul Natl Univ, Grad Sch Publ Hlth, Seoul 08826, South Korea
3.APEC Climate Ctr, Climate Serv & Res Dept, Busan 48058, South Korea
4.Univ Washington, Ctr Hlth & Global Environm, Seattle, WA 98105 USA

Recommended Citation:
Lee, Jae Young,Lee, Woo-Seop,Ebi, Kristie L.,et al. Temperature-Related Summer Mortality Under Multiple Climate, Population, and Adaptation Scenarios[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH,2019-01-01,16(6)
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