Sea-level rise (SLR) is not just a future trend; it is occurring now in most coastal regions across the globe. It thus impacts not only long-range planning in coastal environments, but also emergency preparedness. Its inevitability and irreversibility on long time scales, in addition to its spatial non-uniformity, uncertain magnitude and timing, and capacity to drive non-stationarity in coastal flooding on planning and engineering timescales, create unique challenges for coastal risk-management decision processes. This review assesses past United States federal efforts to synthesize evolving SLR science in support of coastal risk management. In particular, it outlines the: (1) evolution in global SLR scenarios to those using a risk-based perspective that also considers low-probability but high-consequence outcomes, (2) regionalization of the global scenarios, and (3) use of probabilistic approaches. It also describes efforts to further contextualize regional scenarios by combining local mean sea-level changes with extreme water level projections. Finally, it offers perspectives on key issues relevant to the future uptake, interpretation, and application of sea-level change scenarios in decision-making. These perspectives have utility for efforts to craft standards and guidance for preparedness and resilience measures to reduce the risk of coastal flooding and other impacts related to SLR.
1.US Dept Def, Strateg Environm Res & Dev Program, Alexandria, VA USA 2.US Dept Def, Environm Secur Technol Certificat Program, Alexandria, VA USA 3.US EPA, Natl Ctr Environm Assessment, Res Triangle Pk, NC 27711 USA 4.South Florida Water Management Dist, Adaptat Sea Level Rise Project, W Palm Beach, FL USA 5.Fed Emergency Management Assoc, Fed Insurance & Mitigat Adm, Rick Management Directorate, Washington, DC USA 6.Columbia Univ, Lamont Doherty Earth Observ, Palisades, NY USA 7.Rutgers State Univ, Dept Earth & Planetary Sci, New Brunswick, NJ USA 8.Rutgers State Univ, Inst Earth Ocean & Atmospher Sci, New Brunswick, NJ USA 9.Off Oceanographer Navy, Washington, DC USA 10.NOAA, Off Coastal Management, Charleston, SC USA 11.CUNY Brooklyn Coll, Sci & Resilience Inst Jama Bay, Brooklyn, NY 11210 USA 12.NOAA, Ctr Operat Oceanog Prod & Serv, Silver Spring, MD USA 13.US Army Corps Engineers, New Orleans, LA USA 14.US Army Corps Engineers, Engn & Construct Directorate, Washington, DC USA 15.Bur Land Management, US Dept Interior, Joint Fire Sci Program, Boise, ID USA 16.Florida Int Univ, Sea Level Solut Ctr, Miami, FL 33199 USA 17.Jupiter Intelligence, San Mateo, CA USA
Recommended Citation:
Hall, John A.,Weaver, Christopher P.,Obeysekera, Jayantha,et al. Rising Sea Levels: Helping Decision-Makers Confront the Inevitable[J]. COASTAL MANAGEMENT,2019-01-01,47(2):127-150