globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.5194/hess-23-1339-2019
WOS记录号: WOS:000460841100001
论文题名:
Effects of univariate and multivariate bias correction on hydrological impact projections in alpine catchments
作者: Meyer, Judith1,5; Kohn, Irene1; Stahl, Kerstin1; Hakala, Kirsti2; Seibert, Jan2,3; Cannon, Alex J.4
通讯作者: Kohn, Irene
刊名: HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES
ISSN: 1027-5606
EISSN: 1607-7938
出版年: 2019
卷: 23, 期:3, 页码:1339-1354
语种: 英语
WOS关键词: 21ST-CENTURY CLIMATE-CHANGE ; SUMMER LOW FLOWS ; RUNOFF-MODEL ; GLACIER INVENTORY ; EUROPEAN ALPS ; PRECIPITATION ; SIMULATIONS ; DISTRIBUTIONS ; UNCERTAINTY ; TEMPERATURE
WOS学科分类: Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向: Geology ; Water Resources
英文摘要:

Alpine catchments show a high sensitivity to climate variation as they include the elevation range of the snow line. Therefore, the correct representation of climate variables and their interdependence is crucial when describing or predicting hydrological processes. When using climate model simulations in hydrological impact studies, forcing meteorological data are usually downscaled and bias corrected, most often by univariate approaches such as quantile mapping of individual variables, neglecting the relationships that exist between climate variables. In this study we test the hypothesis that the explicit consideration of the relation between air temperature and precipitation will affect hydrological impact modelling in a snow-dominated mountain environment. Glacio-hydrological simulations were performed for two partly glacierized alpine catchments using a recently developed multivariate bias correction method to post-process EURO-CORDEX regional climate model outputs between 1976 and 2099. These simulations were compared to those obtained by using the common univariate quantile mapping for bias correction. As both methods correct each climate variable's distribution in the same way, the marginal distributions of the individual variables show no differences. Yet, regarding the interdependence of precipitation and air temperature, clear differences are notable in the studied catchments. Simultaneous correction based on the multivariate approach led to more precipitation below air temperatures of 0 degrees C and therefore more simulated snowfall than with the data of the univariate approach. This difference translated to considerable consequences for the hydrological responses of the catchments. The multivariate biascorrection-forced simulations showed distinctly different results for projected snow cover characteristics, snowmelt-driven streamflow components, and expected glacier disappearance dates. In all aspects - the fraction of precipitation above and below 0 degrees C, the simulated snow water equivalents, glacier volumes, and the streamflow regime - simulations resulting from the multivariate-corrected data corresponded better with reference data than the results of univariate bias correction. Differences in simulated total streamflow due to the different bias correction approaches may be considered negligible given the generally large spread of the projections, but systematic differences in the seasonally delayed streamflow components from snowmelt in particular will matter from a planning perspective. While this study does not allow conclusive evidence that multivariate bias correction approaches are generally preferable, it clearly demonstrates that incorporating or ignoring inter-variable relationships between air temperature and precipitation data can impact the conclusions drawn in hydrological climate change impact studies in snow-dominated environments.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/131912
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.Univ Freiburg, Fac Environm & Nat Resources, D-79098 Freiburg, Germany
2.Univ Zurich, Dept Geog, CH-8057 Zurich, Switzerland
3.Swedish Univ Agr Sci, Dept Aquat Sci & Assessment, Uppsala, Sweden
4.Environm & Climate Change Canada, Climate Res Div, Victoria, BC V8W 2Y2, Canada
5.Luxembourg Inst Sci & Technol, Catchment & Ecohydrol Res Grp, L-4362 Esch Sur Alzette, Luxembourg

Recommended Citation:
Meyer, Judith,Kohn, Irene,Stahl, Kerstin,et al. Effects of univariate and multivariate bias correction on hydrological impact projections in alpine catchments[J]. HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES,2019-01-01,23(3):1339-1354
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