globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1816541116
WOS记录号: WOS:000460911500031
论文题名:
Rapidly declining remarkability of temperature anomalies may obscure public perception of climate change
作者: Moore, Frances C.1; Obradovich, Nick2; Lehner, Flavio3; Baylis, Patrick4
通讯作者: Moore, Frances C.
刊名: PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
ISSN: 0027-8424
出版年: 2019
卷: 116, 期:11, 页码:4905-4910
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change ; perception ; Twitter ; baseline ; temperature
WOS关键词: BASE-LINE SYNDROME ; WEATHER ; EXPERIENCE ; EMERGENCE ; FLUCTUATIONS ; BELIEF ; WINTER
WOS学科分类: Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS研究方向: Science & Technology - Other Topics
英文摘要:

The changing global climate is producing increasingly unusual weather relative to preindustrial conditions. In an absolute sense, these changing conditions constitute direct evidence of anthropogenic climate change. However, human evaluation of weather as either normal or abnormal will also be influenced by a range of factors including expectations, memory limitations, and cognitive biases. Here we show that experience of weather in recent years-rather than longer historical periods-determines the climatic baseline against which current weather is evaluated, potentially obscuring public recognition of anthropogenic climate change. We employ variation in decadal trends in temperature at weekly and county resolution over the continental United States, combined with discussion of the weather drawn from over 2 billion social media posts. These data indicate that the remarkability of particular temperatures changes rapidly with repeated exposure. Using sentiment analysis tools, we provide evidence for a "boiling frog" effect: The declining noteworthiness of historically extreme temperatures is not accompanied by a decline in the negative sentiment that they induce, indicating that social normalization of extreme conditions rather than adaptation is driving these results. Using climate model projections we show that, despite large increases in absolute temperature, anomalies relative to our empirically estimated shifting baseline are small and not clearly distinguishable from zero throughout the 21st century.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/131918
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.Univ Calif Davis, Dept Environm Sci & Policy, Davis, CA 95616 USA
2.MIT, Media Lab, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA
3.Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Climate & Global Dynam Lab, Boulder, CO 80305 USA
4.Univ British Columbia, Vancouver Sch Econ, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada

Recommended Citation:
Moore, Frances C.,Obradovich, Nick,Lehner, Flavio,et al. Rapidly declining remarkability of temperature anomalies may obscure public perception of climate change[J]. PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,2019-01-01,116(11):4905-4910
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