Year to year variability in weather poses serious risks to crop production in the environmentally fragile agroecosystems of cool semi-arid areas, and future climate changes might further aggravate those risks. This study aims to quantify the contribution of altered sowing time windows to reduce climate risk for the production of oats (Avena saliva), a crop that is well adapted to short growing seasons and low rainfall. The APSIM-Oats model was calibrated and validated for phenology, above-ground dry matter and yield using data from field experiments with five sowing dates, conducted from 2009 to 2013 in Inner Mongolia, China. The model was used to determine yield trends and yield-limiting factors under rain-fed conditions using historical weather data. Changes in temperature had greater impact on crop production than changes in rainfall and the simulations indicated the importance of changed sowing windows to lengthen the growth duration and optimize water use. Delayed sowing of oats, 10 days later than current practice, ensured more secure temperature and rainfall conditions from emergence to flowering and substantially increased yields and decreased climate risk. Delayed sowing also reduced climate risk under two future climate scenarios, RCP4.5 (stabilize growth) and RCP8.5 (high greenhouse gas emission). We conclude that adaptation of sowing time of oats provides a practical strategy for enhancing yield and mitigating climate risk under climate change.
1.China Agr Univ, Coll Resources & Environm Sci, Yuanmingyuan West Rd 2, Beijing 100193, Peoples R China 2.Huairou Meteorol Bur Beijing, Yingbin Mid Rd 31, Beijing 101400, Peoples R China 3.CSIRO Agr & Food, POB 102, Toowoomba, Qld 4350, Australia 4.CSIRO Agr & Food, GPO Box 1700, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia 5.Wageningen Univ, Ctr Crop Syst Anal CSA, Droevendaalsesteeg 1, NL-6708 PB Wageningen, Netherlands 6.China Inst Water Resources & Hydropower Res, Beijing 100038, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation:
Zhang, Yue,Zhang, Lizhen,Yang, Ning,et al. Optimized sowing time windows mitigate climate risks for oats production under cool semi-arid growing conditions[J]. AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY,2019-01-01,266:184-197