globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1002/joc.5887
WOS记录号: WOS:000461606600016
论文题名:
Frequency analysis of precipitation extremes under climate change
作者: Mo, Chongxun1,2,3; Ruan, Yuli1,2,3; He, Jiaqi1,2,3; Jin, JuLiang4; Liu, Peng1,2,3; Sun, Guikai1,2,3
通讯作者: Ruan, Yuli
刊名: INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN: 0899-8418
EISSN: 1097-0088
出版年: 2019
卷: 39, 期:3, 页码:1373-1387
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change ; frequency analysis ; GEV distribution model ; GPD distribution model ; precipitation extreme
WOS关键词: RIVER-BASIN ; RAINFALL ; TEMPERATURE ; VARIABILITY ; CURVES ; TRENDS
WOS学科分类: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

Frequency analysis of precipitation extremes is significant for the selection of design rainfalls, which are essential inputs for the design of water infrastructure projects, especially when the climate has changed. Therefore, the objective of this study was to propose a framework for more reasonably analysing the frequency of extreme rainfalls. The proposed framework consists of a maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) method for analysing the parameter trends, a hydrological variation diagnosis system to determine abrupt change times, generalized extreme value (GEV) and generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) models for frequency analysis of precipitation extremes, and an ensemble-methods approach for choosing the most appropriate distributions. The methodology was successfully implemented using a 52-year time series (1963-2014) of rainfall data recorded by eight rain gauges in Chengbi River basin (south China). The results show that the rainfall series mutated in 1993 and that the entire data set could be divided into two slices (1963-1992 and 1993-2014). Climate change was found to have some impacts on the precipitation extremes: the extreme rainfall value and the parameters of GEV and GPD were variable in the context of climate change. Furthermore, the GPD distribution model outperformed the GEV distribution model.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/132060
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.Guangxi Univ, Coll Architecture & Civil Engn, Nanning, Peoples R China
2.Minist Educ, Key Lab Disaster Prevent & Struct Safety, Nanning, Peoples R China
3.Guangxi Key Labs Disaster Prevent & Engn Safety, Nanning, Peoples R China
4.Hefei Univ Technol, Sch Civil Engn, Hefei, Anhui, Peoples R China

Recommended Citation:
Mo, Chongxun,Ruan, Yuli,He, Jiaqi,et al. Frequency analysis of precipitation extremes under climate change[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2019-01-01,39(3):1373-1387
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