globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.5194/tc-13-969-2019
WOS记录号: WOS:000462076000001
论文题名:
Potential faster Arctic sea ice retreat triggered by snowflakes' greenhouse effect
作者: Li, Jui-Lin Frank1; Richardson, Mark1,2; Lee, Wei-Liang4; Fetzer, Eric1; Stephens, Graeme1; Jiang, Jonathan1; Hong, Yulan3; Wang, Yi-Hui6; Yu, Jia-Yuh7; Liu, Yinghui5
通讯作者: Li, Jui-Lin Frank
刊名: CRYOSPHERE
ISSN: 1994-0416
EISSN: 1994-0424
出版年: 2019
卷: 13, 期:3, 页码:969-980
语种: 英语
WOS关键词: SURFACE IRRADIANCES ; PART I ; CLOUD ; CMIP5 ; SATELLITE ; EXTENT ; MODEL
WOS学科分类: Geography, Physical ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS研究方向: Physical Geography ; Geology
英文摘要:

Recent Arctic sea ice retreat has been quicker than in most general circulation model (GCM) simulations. Internal variability may have amplified the observed retreat in recent years, but reliable attribution and projection requires accurate representation of relevant physics. Most current GCMs do not fully represent falling ice radiative effects (FIREs), and here we show that the small set of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models that include FIREs tend to show faster observed retreat. We investigate this using controlled simulations with the CESM1-CAM5 model. Under 1pctCO2 simulations, including FIREs results in the first occurrence of an "ice-free" Arctic (monthly mean extent < 1 x 10(6) km(2)) at 550 ppm CO2, compared with 680 ppm otherwise. Over 60-90 degrees N oceans, snowflakes reduce downward surface shortwave radiation and increase downward surface longwave radiation, improving agreement with the satellite-based CERES EBAF-Surface dataset. We propose that snowflakes' equivalent greenhouse effect reduces the mean sea ice thickness, resulting in a thinner pack whose retreat is more easily triggered by global warming. This is supported by the CESM1-CAM5 surface fluxes and a reduced initial thickness in perennial sea ice regions by approximately 0.3 m when FIREs are included. This explanation does not apply across the CMIP5 ensemble in which inter-model variation in the simulation of other processes likely dominates. Regardless, we show that FIRE can substantially change Arctic sea ice projections and propose that better including falling ice radiative effects in models is a high priority.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/132323
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.CALTECH, Jet Prop Lab, 4800 Oak Grove Dr, Pasadena, CA 91125 USA
2.Univ Calif Los Angeles, Joint Inst Reg Earth Syst Sci & Engn, Los Angeles, CA 90095 USA
3.Florida State Univ, Dept Earth Ocean & Atmospher Sci, Tallahassee, FL 32304 USA
4.Acad Sinica, Res Ctr Environm Changes, Taipei, Taiwan
5.Univ Wisconsin, Cooperat Inst Meteorol Satellite Studies, Madison, WI 53706 USA
6.Calif Polytech State Univ San Luis Obispo, Ctr Coastal Marine Sci, San Luis Obispo, CA 93407 USA
7.Natl Cent Univ, Dept Atmospher Sci, Taoyuan 32001, Taiwan

Recommended Citation:
Li, Jui-Lin Frank,Richardson, Mark,Lee, Wei-Liang,et al. Potential faster Arctic sea ice retreat triggered by snowflakes&#39; greenhouse effect[J]. CRYOSPHERE,2019-01-01,13(3):969-980
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