globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.12.279
WOS记录号: WOS:000456175700113
论文题名:
Water footprint of winter wheat under climate change: Trends and uncertainties associated to the ensemble of crop models
作者: Garofalo, Pasquale1; Ventrella, Domenico1; Kersebaum, Kurt Christian2; Gobin, Anne3; Trnka, Miroslav4; Giglio, Luisa1; Dubrovsky, Martin4; Castellini, Mirko1
通讯作者: Garofalo, Pasquale
刊名: SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
ISSN: 0048-9697
EISSN: 1879-1026
出版年: 2019
卷: 658, 页码:1186-1208
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change ; Green water ; Blue water ; Water use ; Crop yield forecasting
WOS关键词: DURUM-WHEAT ; CHANGE PROJECTIONS ; RICE PRODUCTION ; CHANGE IMPACTS ; YIELD ; TEMPERATURE ; SENSITIVITY ; EVAPOTRANSPIRATION ; REQUIREMENTS ; AGRICULTURE
WOS学科分类: Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology
英文摘要:

The impact of climate change could undermine the future grain production as a consequence of increased temperature and drought condition or improve the crop performance owing to the increased CO2 in the atmosphere. Wheat water demand and yield are strictly related to climate conditions of the area where the plants are cropped. In this study, we assessed the future trends of grain yield and water consumption in two European regions, Germany (Continental region) and Italy (Mediterranean region) in the light of the multiple sources of uncertainty related to climate and yield forecasts. Four crop models were set up under combinations of two European climate regions, five Global Circulation Models and two Representative CO2 Concentration Pathways, 486 ppm and 540 ppm in 2050. Yield and water use were assessed under rainfed and irrigated regimes, and the water footprint of green water and total water was estimated. Our results indicated that projected yields were comparable (Mediterranean area) or even improved (+9%; Continental area) in rainfed conditions in comparison to the current trend; and water supply enhanced crop performance (+22% in Germany and +19% in Italy, as mean). Crop water consumption (both green and blue) remained stable in future projections but the water footprint was 5% lower on average in Italy and 23% in Germany when compared to the baseline. Despite the uncertainty in future predictions related to the factors analysed, our result indicated that current wheat production and its water footprint could become more favourable under climate change. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/132347
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.Council Agr Res & Econ, Res Ctr Agr & Environm CREA AA, Via Celso Ulpiani 5, I-70125 Bari, Italy
2.Leibniz Ctr Agr Landscape Res ZALF, D-15374 Muncheberg, Germany
3.Flemish Inst Technol Res VITO, B-2400 Mol, Belgium
4.Global Change Res Inst CzechGlobe, Brno 60300, Czech Republic

Recommended Citation:
Garofalo, Pasquale,Ventrella, Domenico,Kersebaum, Kurt Christian,et al. Water footprint of winter wheat under climate change: Trends and uncertainties associated to the ensemble of crop models[J]. SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,2019-01-01,658:1186-1208
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