全球变化知识资源中心

Spatial and temporal patterns of trends in annual and seasonal precipitation over Germany during 1951-2013 were analysed using the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) method. Three widely used and recognized high-resolution observation-based gridded precipitation products, the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) time-series data, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) Full Data Reanalysis data and the EU-FP6 project ENSEMBLES derived data set (EOBS), were used and compared. Comparison among different products showed that the CRU used a considerably lower number of gauge stations (maximum 36) in the construction of gridded product over Germany and should be used with great caution for other applications, and overall CRU presented less precipitation and smaller inter-annual variability; GPCC and EOBS agreed well in the spatial and temporal distribution of seasonal and annual precipitation, as well as the identified trends. The spatiotemporal analysis of trends showed that trends in precipitation during 1951-2013 were, in most cases, highly nonlinear and varying over time. In particular, the spring, summer and autumn precipitation showed large variations in trends. Therefore, the assumption of linear trends on which previous studies were based is invalid. Annual precipitation showed increasing trends in over 66% of Germany (particularly northern and eastern Germany), and the magnitude of increasing trends were generally enhanced over time, e.g. GPCC showed that the average magnitude of increasing trends rose from 6.3% for the 1951-1980 period to 12% for the 1951-2013 period. There were considerable spatial and temporal variabilities in trends in seasonal precipitation totals over Germany. This study is among one of the first studies applying the EEMD method to a comprehensive analysis of time-varying trends in precipitation over Germany, which is expected to improve our understanding of the complex and nonlinear regional climate system.