globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1111/jiec.12742
WOS记录号: WOS:000463892300004
论文题名:
Uncertainty Quantification in Life Cycle Assessments: Exploring Distribution Choice and Greater Data Granularity to Characterize Product Use
作者: Ross, Stephen A.; Cheah, Lynette
通讯作者: Cheah, Lynette
刊名: JOURNAL OF INDUSTRIAL ECOLOGY
ISSN: 1088-1980
EISSN: 1530-9290
出版年: 2019
卷: 23, 期:2, 页码:335-346
语种: 英语
英文关键词: air conditioning ; big data ; design for environment (DfE) ; industrial ecology ; probability distributions ; stochastic modeling
WOS关键词: GREENHOUSE-GAS EMISSIONS ; ENERGY DEMAND ; ELECTRICITY ; METHODOLOGY ; LCA
WOS学科分类: Green & Sustainable Science & Technology ; Engineering, Environmental ; Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向: Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Engineering ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
英文摘要:

The life cycle environmental profile of energy-consuming products is dominated by the products' use stage. Variation in real-world product use can therefore yield large differences in the results of life cycle assessment (LCA). Adequate characterization of input parameters is paramount for uncertainty quantification and has been a challenge to wider adoption of the LCA method. After emphasis in recent years on methodological development, data development has become the primary focus again. Pervasive sensing presents the opportunity to collect rich data sets and improve profiling of use-stage parameters. Illustrating a data-driven approach, we examine energy use in domestic cooling systems, focusing on climate change as the impact category. Specific objectives were to examine: (1) how characterization of the use stage by different probability distributions and (2) how characterizing data aggregated at successively higher granularity affects LCA modeling results and the uncertainty in output. Appliance-level electricity data were sourced from domestic residences for 3 years. Use-stage variables were propagated in a stochastic model and analyses simulated by Monte Carlo procedure. Although distribution choice did not necessarily significantly impact the estimated output, there were differences in the estimated uncertainty. Characterization of use-stage power consumption in the model at successively higher data granularity reduced the output uncertainty with diminishing returns. Results therefore justify the collection of high granularity data sets representing the life cycle use stage of high-energy products. The availability of such data through proliferation of pervasive sensing presents increasing opportunities to better characterize data and increase confidence in results of LCA.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/132879
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Singapore Univ Technol & Design, Engn Syst & Design, Singapore, Singapore

Recommended Citation:
Ross, Stephen A.,Cheah, Lynette. Uncertainty Quantification in Life Cycle Assessments: Exploring Distribution Choice and Greater Data Granularity to Characterize Product Use[J]. JOURNAL OF INDUSTRIAL ECOLOGY,2019-01-01,23(2):335-346
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