globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.3390/w11040761
WOS记录号: WOS:000473105700131
论文题名:
Simulating Current and Future River-Flows in the Karakoram and Himalayan Regions of Pakistan Using Snowmelt-Runoff Model and RCP Scenarios
作者: Hayat, Huma1; Akbar, Tahir Ali2; Tahir, Adnan Ahmad1; Hassan, Quazi K.3; Dewan, Ashraf4; Irshad, Muhammad1
通讯作者: Tahir, Adnan Ahmad ; Hassan, Quazi K.
刊名: WATER
ISSN: 2073-4441
出版年: 2019
卷: 11, 期:4
语种: 英语
英文关键词: mountainous terrain ; MODIS ; upper Indus Basin ; water resources management
WOS关键词: UPPER INDUS BASIN ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; WATER EQUIVALENT ; COVER DYNAMICS ; MODIS ; ALTITUDE ; GLACIER ; RANGE
WOS学科分类: Water Resources
WOS研究方向: Water Resources
英文摘要:

Upper Indus Basin (UIB) supplies more than 70% flow to the downstream agricultural areas during summer due to the melting of snow and glacial ice. The estimation of the stream flow under future climatic projections is a pre-requisite to manage water resources properly. This study focused on the simulation of snowmelt-runoff using Snowmelt-Runoff Model (SRM) under the current and future Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5) climate scenarios in the two main tributaries of the UIB namely the Astore and the Hunza River basins. Remote sensing data from Advanced Land Observation Satellite (ALOS) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) along with in-situ hydro-climatic data was used as input to the SRM. Basin-wide and zone-wise approaches were used in the SRM. For the zone-wise approach, basin areas were sliced into five elevation zones and the mean temperature for the zones with no weather stations was estimated using a lapse rate value of -0.48 degrees C to -0.76 degrees C/100 m in both studied basins. Zonal snow cover was estimated for each zone by reclassifying the MODIS snow maps according to the zonal boundaries. SRM was calibrated over 2000-2001 and validated over the 2002-2004 data period. The results implied that the SRM simulated the river flow efficiently with Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient of 0.90 (0.86) and 0.86 (0.86) for the basin-wide (zone-wise) approach in the Astore and Hunza River Basins, respectively, over the entire simulation period. Mean annual discharge was projected to increase by 11-58% and 14-90% in the Astore and Hunza River Basins, respectively, under all the RCP mid- and late-21st-century scenarios. Mean summer discharge was projected to increase between 10-60% under all the RCP scenarios of mid- and late-21st century in the Astore and Hunza basins. This study suggests that the water resources of Pakistan should be managed properly to lessen the damage to human lives, agriculture, and economy posed by expected future floods as indicated by the climatic projections.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/133085
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.CUI, Dept Environm Sci, Abbottabad Campus, Abbottabad 22060, Pakistan
2.CUI, Dept Civil Engn, Abbottabad Campus, Abbottabad 22060, Pakistan
3.Univ Calgary, Schulich Sch Engn, Dept Geomat Engn, 2500 Univ Dr NW, Calgary, AB T2N 1N4, Canada
4.Curtin Univ, Sch Earth & Planetary Sci, Spatial Sci Discipline, Kent St, Bentley, WA 6102, Australia

Recommended Citation:
Hayat, Huma,Akbar, Tahir Ali,Tahir, Adnan Ahmad,et al. Simulating Current and Future River-Flows in the Karakoram and Himalayan Regions of Pakistan Using Snowmelt-Runoff Model and RCP Scenarios[J]. WATER,2019-01-01,11(4)
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