globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.3390/w11040812
WOS记录号: WOS:000473105700182
论文题名:
A New Uncertainty Measure for Assessing the Uncertainty Existing in Hydrological Simulation
作者: Shi, Pengfei1,2; Yang, Tao1; Yong, Bin1,2; Li, Zhenya1; Xu, Chong-Yu1,3; Shao, Quanxi4; Wang, Xiaoyan1; Zhou, Xudong1; Qin, Youwei1
通讯作者: Yang, Tao
刊名: WATER
ISSN: 2073-4441
出版年: 2019
卷: 11, 期:4
语种: 英语
英文关键词: uncertainty analysis ; uncertainty measures ; weight assignment ; composite uncertainty index ; hierarchical weight assembly approach ; hydrological simulation
WOS关键词: GOODNESS-OF-FIT ; SENSITIVITY-ANALYSIS ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; ATTRIBUTE WEIGHTS ; BAYESIAN METHOD ; MODEL ; GLUE ; CALIBRATION ; PREDICTION ; IMPACT
WOS学科分类: Water Resources
WOS研究方向: Water Resources
英文摘要:

The absence of aggregated uncertainty measures restricts the assessment of uncertainty in hydrological simulation. In this work, a new composite uncertainty measure is developed to evaluate the complex behaviors of uncertainty existing in hydrological simulation. The composite uncertainty measure is constructed based on a framework, which includes three steps: (1) identification of behavioral measures by analyzing the pairwise correlations among different measures and removing high correlations; (2) weight assignment by means of a new hierarchical weight assembly (HWA) approach incorporating the intra-class and inter-class weights; (3) construction of a composite uncertainty measure through incorporating multiple properties of the measure matrix. The framework and the composite uncertainty measure are demonstrated by case studies in uncertainty assessment for hydrological simulation. Results indicate that the framework is efficient to generate a composite uncertainty index (denoted as CUI) and the new measure CUI is competent for uncertainty evaluation. Besides, the HWA approach performs well in weighting, which can characterize subjective and objective properties of the information matrix. The achievement of this work provides promising insights into the performance comparison of uncertainty analysis approaches, the selection of proper cut-off threshold in the GLUE method, and the guidance of reasonable uncertainty assessment in a range of environmental modelling.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/133096
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.Hohai Univ, State Key Lab Hydrol Water Resources & Hydraul En, Ctr Global Change & Water Cycle, Nanjing 210098, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
2.Hohai Univ, Sch Earth Sci & Engn, Nanjing 210098, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
3.Univ Oslo, Dept Geosci, POB 1047, N-0316 Oslo, Norway
4.CSIRO Digital Prod Flagship, Leeuwin Ctr, 65 Brockway Rd, Floreat, WA 6014, Australia

Recommended Citation:
Shi, Pengfei,Yang, Tao,Yong, Bin,et al. A New Uncertainty Measure for Assessing the Uncertainty Existing in Hydrological Simulation[J]. WATER,2019-01-01,11(4)
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