globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-019-02393-x
WOS记录号: WOS:000465577100004
论文题名:
Bias correcting climate model multi-member ensembles to assess climate change impacts on hydrology
作者: Chen, Jie1; Brissette, Francois P.2; Zhang, Xunchang J.3; Chen, Hua1; Guo, Shenglian1; Zhao, Yan4
通讯作者: Chen, Jie
刊名: CLIMATIC CHANGE
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2019
卷: 153, 期:3, 页码:361-377
语种: 英语
WOS关键词: NATURAL VARIABILITY ; PRECIPITATION ; SIMULATIONS ; PERFORMANCE ; UNCERTAINTY ; PREDICTION ; OUTPUTS ; CMIP5 ; RIVER
WOS学科分类: Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

Bias correction is usually applied to climate model outputs before they are used as inputs to environmental models for impact studies. Every climate model is post-processed independently of others to account for biases originating from model structure and internal variability. To better understand the role of internal variability, multi-member ensembles (multiple runs of a single climate model, with identical forcing but different initial conditions) have now become common in the modeling community. Bias correcting such ensembles requires specific considerations. Correcting all members of such an ensemble independently would force all of them to the target distribution, thus removing the signature of natural variability over the calibration period. How this undesirable effect would propagate onto subsequent time periods is unknown. This study proposes three bias correction variants of a multi-member ensemble and compares their performances against an independent correction of each individual member of the ensemble. The comparison is based on precipitation and temperature, as well as on resulting streamflows simulated by a hydrological model. Two multi-member ensembles (5-member CanESM2 and 10-member CSIRO-MK3.6) were used for a subtropical monsoon watershed in China. The results show that all bias correction methods reduce precipitation and temperature biases for all ensemble members. As expected, independent correction reduces the spread of each ensemble over the calibration period. This is, however, followed by an overestimation of the spread over the subsequent validation period. Pooling all members to calculate common bias correction factors produces the best results over the calibration period; however, the difference among three bias correction variants becomes less clear over the validation period due to internal variability, and even less so when considering streamflows, as the impact model adds its own uncertainty.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/133350
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.Wuhan Univ, State Key Lab Water Resources & Hydropower Engn S, 299 Bayi Rd, Wuhan 430072, Hubei, Peoples R China
2.Univ Quebec, Ecole Technol Super, 1100 Notre Dame St West, Montreal, PQ H3C 1K3, Canada
3.USDA ARS, Grazinglands Res Lab, 7207W Cheyenne St, El Reno, OK 73036 USA
4.Huaian Hydraul Survey & Design Inst Co Ltd, 26 Shenzhen Rd, Huaian 223003, Jiangsu, Peoples R China

Recommended Citation:
Chen, Jie,Brissette, Francois P.,Zhang, Xunchang J.,et al. Bias correcting climate model multi-member ensembles to assess climate change impacts on hydrology[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2019-01-01,153(3):361-377
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