globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1007/s11269-019-02230-x
WOS记录号: WOS:000466178800011
论文题名:
Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in the Somme River Basin (France)
作者: Amraoui, N.; Sbai, M. A.; Stollsteiner, P.
通讯作者: Amraoui, N.
刊名: WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT
ISSN: 0920-4741
EISSN: 1573-1650
出版年: 2019
卷: 33, 期:6, 页码:2073-2092
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change ; Water resources ; Chalky aquifer ; Somme River basin
WOS关键词: GROUNDWATER ; VALIDATION ; AQUIFER ; SURFACE ; CHALK ; FLOW
WOS学科分类: Engineering, Civil ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向: Engineering ; Water Resources
英文摘要:

Modelling the impacts of climate change on water resources in the Somme watershed in northern France is investigated with a multimodel ensemble to probe the sensitivity of hydrologic response to uncertainties in climate projections provided by general circulation models. At the Somme watershed scale, the average decrease in predicted recharge from seven climate models is -18.7%. However, significant disparities appear between simulation results for different climate models. These variations are bounded between -30.4% for the most pessimistic model and-5.6% for the most optimistic model. Moreover, seasonal gaps are markedly important. For all climate models, the impacts on groundwater levels would be greater on plateaus than in humid valleys. The water level changes would be on the order of -10m on the plateaus for five climate models and between 0.2m and 0.5m in humid valleys. The impacts of two other climate models on water levels are rather low. In addition, the monthly average discharge of the Somme River and its tributaries is predicted to decrease by 2065. The seven-model average shows that the low outlet flow rate to the Somme basin would be reduced by 23% but with disparities between models. The decrease would be more severe in the Avre basin, with the minimal discharge reduced by 32%. This study is a first step towards addressing uncertainties in climate models such that an adaptive watershed management strategy could be devised for water resource managers.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/133354
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Bur Rech Geol & Minieres, Water Environm & Ecotechnol Div, 3 Ave Claude Guillemin,BP 36009, F-45060 Orleans 2, France

Recommended Citation:
Amraoui, N.,Sbai, M. A.,Stollsteiner, P.. Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in the Somme River Basin (France)[J]. WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT,2019-01-01,33(6):2073-2092
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