globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1111/ecog.04039
WOS记录号: WOS:000462922500018
论文题名:
Coupled land use and ecological models reveal emergence and feedbacks in socio-ecological systems
作者: Synes, Nicholas W.1; Brown, Calum2; Palmer, Stephen C. F.3; Bocedi, Greta3; Osborne, Patrick E.1; Watts, Kevin4,5; Franklin, Janet6; Travis, Justin M. J.3
通讯作者: Synes, Nicholas W.
刊名: ECOGRAPHY
ISSN: 0906-7590
EISSN: 1600-0587
出版年: 2019
卷: 42, 期:4, 页码:814-825
语种: 英语
英文关键词: population dynamics ; agricultural intensification ; integrated model
WOS关键词: AGENT-BASED MODELS ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; SPECIES DISTRIBUTION ; POPULATION-MODELS ; CROP POLLINATION ; NATURAL SYSTEMS ; EXTINCTION RISK ; FORAGING RANGE ; BIODIVERSITY ; IMPACTS
WOS学科分类: Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology
WOS研究方向: Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
英文摘要:

Understanding the dynamics of socio-ecological systems is crucial to the development of environmentally sustainable practices. Models of social or ecological sub-systems have greatly enhanced such understanding, but at the risk of obscuring important feedbacks and emergent effects. Integrated modelling approaches have the potential to address this shortcoming by explicitly representing linked socio-ecological dynamics. We developed a socio-ecological system model by coupling an existing agent-based model of land-use dynamics and an individual-based model of demography and dispersal. A hypothetical case-study was established to simulate the interaction of crops and their pollinators in a changing agricultural landscape, initialised from a spatially random distribution of natural assets. The bi-directional coupled model predicted larger changes in crop yield and pollinator populations than a unidirectional uncoupled version. The spatial properties of the system also differed, the coupled version revealing the emergence of spatial land-use clusters that neither supported nor required pollinators. These findings suggest that important dynamics may be missed by uncoupled modelling approaches, but that these can be captured through the combination of currently-available, compatible model frameworks. Such model integrations are required to further fundamental understanding of socio-ecological dynamics and thus improve management of socio-ecological systems.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/133532
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.Univ Southampton, Fac Environm & Life Sci, Ctr Environm Sci, Southampton, Hants, England
2.Karlsruhe Inst Technol, Inst Meteorol & Climate Res Atmospher Environm Re, IMK IFU, Garmisch Partenkirchen, Germany
3.Univ Aberdeen, Sch Biol Sci, Aberdeen, Scotland
4.Forest Res, Farnham, Surrey, England
5.Univ Stirling, Biol & Environm Sci, Sch Nat Sci, Stirling, Scotland
6.Univ Calif Riverside, Dept Bot & Plant Sci, Riverside, CA 92521 USA

Recommended Citation:
Synes, Nicholas W.,Brown, Calum,Palmer, Stephen C. F.,et al. Coupled land use and ecological models reveal emergence and feedbacks in socio-ecological systems[J]. ECOGRAPHY,2019-01-01,42(4):814-825
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