全球变化知识资源中心

Automobile industry is one of the key industries of the economy and plays an important role in terms of social development. The new energy automobile industry is a strategic emerging industry, which is a major upgrading and transformation development based on driving technology. It is also an effective measure to promote energy saving and emission reduction. At present, China's environmental problems and energy security issues have become increasingly serious. Therefore, developing new energy efficient vehicles is an important breakthrough for energy security, climate change, environmental protection, and structural upgrading. In this paper, we use the extended Logistic model to forecast future car ownership in China. We also calculate the total amount of oil consumed by China's auto sector. Again, we analyze the medium-term development path of electric vehicles from two aspects: environment and energy security constraints. In addition, this paper examines the change in electric vehicles developing path in different scenarios. Based on the discussions of this paper, a theoretical basis and policy support for the promotion of electric vehicles in China are provided.