globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1007/s00484-019-01684-3
WOS记录号: WOS:000462612800010
论文题名:
The predictability of heat-related mortality in Prague, Czech Republic, during summer 2015a comparison of selected thermal indices
作者: Urban, Ales1; Hondula, David M.2; Hanzlikova, Hana1,3; Kysely, Jan1,4,5
通讯作者: Urban, Ales
刊名: INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY
ISSN: 0020-7128
EISSN: 1432-1254
出版年: 2019
卷: 63, 期:4, 页码:535-548
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Heat ; Heat-related mortality ; Heat warning system ; Thermal indices ; Central Europe
WOS关键词: SPATIAL SYNOPTIC CLASSIFICATION ; CARDIOVASCULAR MORTALITY ; EQUIVALENT TEMPERATURE ; WARNING SYSTEMS ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; AIR-POLLUTION ; PUBLIC-HEALTH ; WAVES ; HOT ; ENVIRONMENTS
WOS学科分类: Biophysics ; Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Physiology
WOS研究方向: Biophysics ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Physiology
英文摘要:

We compared selected thermal indices in their ability to predict heat-related mortality in Prague, Czech Republic, during the extraordinary summer 2015. Relatively, novel thermal indicesUniversal Thermal Climate Index and Excess Heat Factor (EHF)were compared with more traditional ones (apparent temperature, simplified wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT), and physiologically equivalent temperature). The relationships between thermal indices and all-cause relative mortality deviations from the baseline (excess mortality) were estimated by generalized additive models for the extended summer season (May-September) during 1994-2014. The resulting models were applied to predict excess mortality in 2015 based on observed meteorology, and the mortality estimates by different indices were compared. Although all predictors showed a clear association between thermal conditions and excess mortality, we found important variability in their performance. The EHF formula performed best in estimating the intensity of heat waves and magnitude of heat-impacts on excess mortality on the most extreme days. Afternoon WBGT, on the other hand, was most precise in the selection of heat-alert days during the extended summer season, mainly due to a relatively small number of false alerts compared to other predictors. Since the main purpose of heat warning systems is identification of days with an increased risk of heat-related death rather than prediction of exact magnitude of the excess mortality, WBGT seemed to be a slightly favorable predictor for such a system.


Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/133790
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: 1.Czech Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, Bocni 2 1401, Prague 14131 4, Czech Republic
2.Arizona State Univ, Sch Geog Sci & Urban Planning, POB 875302, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA
3.Czech Acad Sci, Inst Geophys, Bocni 2 1401, Prague 14131 4, Czech Republic
4.Czech Univ Life Sci, Fac Environm Sci, Kamycka 129, Prague 16521 6, Czech Republic
5.Czech Acad Sci, Global Change Res Ctr, Belidla 986, Brno 60300, Czech Republic

Recommended Citation:
Urban, Ales,Hondula, David M.,Hanzlikova, Hana,et al. The predictability of heat-related mortality in Prague, Czech Republic, during summer 2015a comparison of selected thermal indices[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY,2019-01-01,63(4):535-548
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Urban, Ales]'s Articles
[Hondula, David M.]'s Articles
[Hanzlikova, Hana]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[Urban, Ales]'s Articles
[Hondula, David M.]'s Articles
[Hanzlikova, Hana]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[Urban, Ales]‘s Articles
[Hondula, David M.]‘s Articles
[Hanzlikova, Hana]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.